A day after widespread wind gusts of 60+mph knocked out power to nearly 90,000 at one point yesterday across New England, windy conditions will prevail again today. There is high confidence that today's winds will not reach the extent of yesterday. On Friday, a low-level jet of up to 70mph was very well mixed, allowing for gusts nearly that strong to reach the surface. This afternoon, low-level winds will be around 35-45mph. The low-level winds will peak in the evening, around 50-60mph, but mixing won't be as deep, so stronger wind gusts will have more trouble making it to the surface.
Below: Euro showing forecast winds around 4,700 feet above sea level yesterday morning (1st image) and this evening (2nd image). These two times indicate the strongest winds aloft of each day:
The highest gusts today will come just after a reinforcing shot of cold air behind a frontal passage this afternoon. With another push of cold air advection and a continued tight pressure gradient today, gusts of 35-45mph will be possible across much of the region today. The Berkshires and White Mountains will have the best chance at seeing gusts up 50+mph. After yesterday's winds, branches could be weakened, so power outage numbers may continue to fluctuate throughout the day. As of 8am, about 13,000 are without power.
Springtime is the windiest time of year for New England, and breezy conditions will likely persist over the next few days as multiple weather features make their way through the region. At this point, there's no indication of major wind like Friday and winds will generally be decreasing through early next week, with a bit of a spike Tuesday as warmer air rushes into the region.
As far as precipitation and storm systems go, the overall flow pattern will begin to trend more zonal as the period goes on. This will generally keep more impactful southern stream storm systems to the south of New England. A series of weaker and moisture-starved northern stream disturbances and fronts look to trickle through New England with minimal to no impacts through midweek.
For the weekend, New England remains under broad cyclonic flow, allowing for scattered snow showers across the mountains. A few snow showers and/or sprinkles could occasionally wander south and east of the mountains at times, especially on Sunday. A warm front may begin to approach the region on Sunday, bringing an increase in clouds and spotty showers, possibly creating a raw feel to the day.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather Sunday afternoon:
A quick, northern stream clipper-like system will likely dive through New England on Monday. With an increasingly zonal flow over the east, this system will shoot through New England with very limited moisture. A moisture-rich system over the south will remain well south of New England, preventing a more organized and widespread storm.
The northern streamer may be able to produce some light and scattered snow and/or rain showers on its own (mainly over northern New England). Snow showers would be most likely Monday morning across Vermont and northern New Hampshire. Current probabilities show moderate to high probabilities of an inch of snow over these areas with a low to moderate probability of 2 inches.
Precipitation will likely begin to fizzle out as Monday goes on, struggling to make it south and east of the White Mountains/NH Lakes Region. There remains discrepancies on how widespread precipitation can become, especially heading into Monday afternoon as guidance has struggled with this one. With that said, this will be a low to no impact event with many areas likely ending up dry.
Below: Current probability of seeing at least 1 inch of snow Sunday afternoon to Monday:
Without interaction between the northern and southern streams, the northern streamers passing through New England will result in not much more than some clouds and maybe a few light rain/snow showers at times. This goes for Monday as well as the additional waves of energy and fronts passing into New England through much of the week. There are no widespread storms and little by way of total precipitation forecast through the next week.
Below: Current 7-day precipitation forecast:
A sub-tropical ridge of high pressure is expected to slide across the southern/eastern United States moving into next week. This will allow for a gradual increase in temperatures after the weekend cool-down as a southerly flow develops. Combine this with a zonal flow pushing mild Pacific air across the country, and temperatures will likely be back above average. Tuesday is poised to see the most widespread warmth across New England. This will be the best chance at 50s and low 60s for much of New England with 40s in the mountains and far north.
As we hinted at yesterday, temperatures are now looking more likely to come down a notch on Wednesday rather than stay elevated. This will come as a system to New England's north will drag its cold front across the region. While it won't be cold behind this front, a weak northwest flow and a cool surface high pressure will keep temperatures in check.
Below: Current weather map for Wednesday morning (March 12), showing the front pushing through New England:
There remains a large spread in how temperatures play out for Thursday and Friday. This uncertainty has to do with discrepancies in potential precipitation and overall cloud cover, both of which have a very high influence on overall temperatures this time of year as the sun angle grows stronger by the day.
Another northern streamer looks to move through later next week, but, like Monday, there's a high level of uncertainty in just how much and how widespread precipitation can be as a ridge of high pressure remains just to New England's east. Lesser influence from this system will allow temperatures to climb back to Tuesday's levels while more influence will keep temperatures down for a remainder of the week. There's a better chance of more influence across northern areas.
Below: Current weather map for next Thursday (March 13):
Overall, there's not too much potential for winter-like cold in the medium-range forecast, with a more southerly flow expected to influence much of the eastern United States over the next couple weeks. The next organized storm system for New England looks to enter the picture around next weekend.
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