On Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region. This will spawn a surface low pressure system which will drive eastward through Ohio and Pennsylvania, lifting a warm front toward New England. The system itself will travel through New England on Monday. This will bring rounds of showers and widespread rainfall to New England Sunday and Monday.
The system's warm front will likely begin to spread showers into New England as early as Sunday morning. Showers on Sunday during the daylight hours will be most likely across northern Massachusetts and points north, excluding northern Maine. Forcing for showers will be greatest just to the north of the warm front.
Exactly when showers begin to arrive will be determined by how quickly the more moist air can spread into New England, Dry air and surface high pressure will try to eat away at the showers initially. Showers should continue to fill in through the afternoon and become more widespread by the evening as the dry air gets eroded. Sunday will not be a washout for most.
Below: GFS showing potential weather Sunday afternoon (1st image) and Sunday evening (2nd image):
The bulk of the rainfall from this system will move through New England Sunday night into Monday morning as the center of the low pressure system swings through the region. Recent trends have been toward a slower exit of the system, which would allow showers to continue for much of the day across at least northern New England.
A gradual drying trend will commence from southwest to northeast across New England during the day on Monday. Once the more widespread rainfall ends, rounds of scattered showers will likely continue to rotate through New England behind the system. The best chance for a drier afternoon will be across southern New England. Monday afternoon may end up similar to Sunday afternoon with more scattered shower activity.
Below: GFS showing potential weather Monday morning::
There is somewhat of a chance for the rain to begin as a burst of snow across far northern New England, near the Canadian border Sunday evening into Monday morning. Naturally, the higher elevations will see the better chance of this happening. Upslope showers will likely continue for the mountains into midweek while the rest of New England dries out after Monday. These upslope showers may prolong winter-like weather for the mountains.
When all is said and done with this system, a widespread 0.25-1.25 inches of rain will likely have fallen across New England. The higher end of the spectrum will be across northern New England with amounts dropping off heading south and west in New England. Downeast Maine will likely see the most rain. Up to two inches will be possible here. Much of New England remains dry, so this will be beneficial rainfall. Moderate drought conditions have developed across easternmost Maine, so this 1-2 inches will be helpful on that front.
As stated above, much of New England will begin to dry out after Monday. The upper-level low will remain to New England's northeast through at least midweek. Expansive high pressure will build to New England's west during this time as well. This will set up a week similar to last week with chilly temperatures and the potential for scattered showers across the higher terrain.
It does look like it will be cooler than last week with widespread frost and freeze potential. Afternoons will be held to the 40s north and 50s south. The high pressure over the west looks to shift more eastward late in the week, which would allow for at least a slight warm-up at the end of next week.
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