Last night's snowstorm will continue to wind down as this morning and afternoon goes on. A widespread 5-8 inches of snow fell across northern New England with 3-6 inches across southern New England. The zone of highest snowfall ended up farther north than anticipated as a dry slot ate away at the snowfall farther south.
Below: Snowfall reports as of 9am:
One of the biggest uncertainties we talked about in our forecasts for this storm was the potential of a dry slot reducing totals across southernmost New England. In our "impacts, timing" article yesterday morning, we wrote:
"By the pre-dawn hours, a dry slot may work into southernmost New England, reducing snow rates...Drier air is expected to move into the snow growth zone in the early morning hours. This is what happened this past Thursday, which led to amounts coming in on the lower end of the ranges for the most part. This has the best potential to impact totals south of the Mass Pike, but the northern extent remains a bit of a question. Should this slot move in quickly, it will have an impact on final totals, especially for Connecticut and Rhode Island."
In our evening update on social media on Friday, we wrote: "A bigger [factor working against snowfall] may be the potential for a dry slot to work into the region shortly after the heaviest round of snow early Sunday morning...Should it move in quickly Sunday morning, it could reduce snow totals as snowfall rates and snow ratios will be reduced with it."
The rest of today will be quiet with variable clouds. The start of next week still looks quiet with Monday and Tuesday looking mostly calm. An area of low pressure will drive a cold front through the region Tuesday into Tuesday night. This front could trigger a line of scattered snow showers, mainly across the northern tier of the region.
This push of colder and drier air will aid in keeping storm number three in this stretch well south of New England. This weaker and compact storm will very likely track well south of the benchmark, bringing only a limited chance for snow showers to southernmost New England. Should these showers develop, accumulations should be pretty light.
Overall, the large-scale patterns will not change much this week. This will continue the theme of temperatures hanging slightly below seasonable levels with the chance for widespread precipitation every 2-3 days. The one difference could involve strengthening of a ridge over the Atlantic. This could help introduce more mixing issues within storms at the end of the week. This could also set up a stronger temperature gradient over New England, leading to stronger storms.
Storm number four is set to come through New England later Wednesday into Thursday. This storm will involve an area of low pressure moving to the north of New England with possible secondary low development off New England's coast. The strength and timing of the secondary low will be key when it comes to precipitation types with this system. This storm appears to be all snow at the start for everyone given the cold air that will be in place. After that initial burst of snow, the question will become what precipitation types look like thereafter.
A slower development of the secondary low develops (along with how weak it is) will support warmer air moving into the region aloft, supporting a changeover to a mix from south to north, similar to what occurred this past Thursday (though this storm has the chance to be stronger altogether). A quicker and stronger secondary low would support colder profiles resulting in more widespread snow across the entire region. Even with this warmer solution, much of northern New England may remain all snow from start to finish.
Trends have been moving in the direction of a weaker secondary low, which is supported by the fact that it will be a progressive system with no phasing. These two factors do not support a rapidly strengthening storm in the Gulf of Maine, which would be needed to keep this an all-snow event for everyone. With that said, trends on recent storms have initially looked warmer before trending colder and colder with more snow as the event draws closer. So, we need to be wary of a "windshield wiper" effect, where guidance flips back to a colder solution in the coming days.
Below: Current probability of impactful winter weather Thursday:
With the active pattern not really budging, Storm number five will likely be near New England next weekend. As one would expect a week out, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding this one regarding track, timing, thermal profiles and precipitation types. At this point, it could play similar to Thursday's storm, though it's very hard to try to dig up details with any kind of confidence right now.
Below: Model roundup (Euro, GFS, CMC & GraphCast) for Sunday (February 16):
With that said, this storm may have the chance to become stronger as there are hints of more amplification within the jet stream with this one. This could support the chance for a deeper storm than the more progressive ones seen over the last week.
Below: Forecast flow around next weekend (February 16), showing the chance for more amplification:
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