For the rest of this week and into next week, there will be a distinct warming trend as it relates to high temperatures. The center of this high will be to New England's southwest, a favorable position to pump more mild air into the region. After a seasonable Thursday, each day will likely get a notch warmer than the last through early next week. Afternoon temperatures will peak with widespread upper 60s to low 70s early next week. Typical warm spots of southern New England may be able to push well into the 70s.
With high pressure overhead during this time frame, it will take longer for overnight lows to respond due to great radiational cooling conditions. Mainly clear skies and calm winds will allow the temperatures to fall off after sunset. Widespread lows in the 30s will continue through Sunday morning. The exception will be across southern New England on Friday morning, which may see gusty conditions and therefore less of a drop in temperatures.
Along with the warming temperatures, this expansive area of high pressure will bring about very calm and mainly sunny weather through the weekend and into early next week. This high pressure will be rather strong, building to the 1,030-1,035mb range. For comparison, average neutral (neither high nor low) surface pressure is around 1,013mb. This will deflect any storm systems away from New England.
Below: Pressure Saturday morning:
The warmest day of this stretch is looking more and more likely to come on Monday or Tuesday of next week. This is when highs in southern New England's typical warm spots may try to push into the upper 70s. Highs elsewhere in New England will be in the mid 60s to low 70s.
Below: Climate Prediction Center 6-10 temperature outlook:
Along with the increase in temperatures, this setup will bring about another prolonged stretch of dry weather for New England. The high pressure will keep a developing nor'easter well offshore of New England. This storm will meander up the east coast through the next 36-48 hours. While the system does stay well offshore, it will send some increased clouds and gusty northeast winds into southeast New England through Friday.
There was a slight chance of this storm pushing its outermost showers onto Cape Cod and the Islands, but this has just about been settled that the showers will not be able to push onshore as dry air and high pressure will be too much for the system to overcome. There will be a chance for some splash over or very minor coastal flooding along the eastern Massachusetts coast due to the distant nor'easter winds combining with monthly high tides. The Friday midday tide would be the one most affected.
The only other system near New England through midweek next week will be a cold front that will approach northernmost New England Saturday night. This front will have a very hard time pushing into New England amid the high pressure and may only manage to produce an uptick in clouds for northern New England along with a breeze. With these two systems being deflected from New England, any precipitation will be difficult to come by, as seen in the current Weather Prediction Center 7-day rainfall forecast, which is shown below.
The next real chance for some precipitation may come toward the middle or end of next week. At this time, the ridge of high pressure may slide eastward, making way for a potential frontal system to cross New England. At this early stage, this is not looking to be a notable rain event, but chances for showers will increase after midweek next week. This front should also allow temperatures to crash back to our late-October reality. Being a week away, all of this is preliminary.
Below: Current weather map for next Thursday (October 24):
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