A very strong high pressure system centered just to New England's north will remain firmly in control through the weekend. This will bring calm and cold conditions for the next couple days. These conditions will be brief as milder and more unsettled weather returns for next week. There will once again be multiple systems to watch.
The very strong high pressure system looks to peak in strength Saturday with a central pressure of 1,048-1,050mb. For reference, standard surface pressure (neither high nor low) is considered to be around 1,013mb. This high pressure is just about as strong as they get for the northeast. New England's high pressure record is 1,054.18mb, set in Caribou, Maine in 1949. All other cities in New England have high pressure records in the 1,050-1,053mb range.
The strongest high pressure systems are associated with cold air masses, and this one is no exception. Highs on Saturday will be similar to Friday, though the edge will be taken off in regards to the wind chills. Overnight lows will be cold with optimal radiational cooling conditions in place.
The strong high pressure crests over New England tonight, bringing clear skies, very light winds and very low dew points. This will allow temperatures to bottom out. Overnight lows will likely drop to the 5-15° range for most. Some locations across northern New England will likely manage to drop below zero tonight, mainly in the mountains and the Northeast Kingdom.
On Sunday, the high pressure continues to slide eastward and eventually offshore. Once the high starts making its way to the warmer air over the ocean, it will begin to weaken as the temperature moderates. While Saturday should be mainly sunny under this high, Sunday may feature more by way of partly cloudy skies as the high will create a light onshore flow, allowing moist air to move over the region and clouds to move in off the ocean.
Sunday night will be the transition time from the calm conditions back to more unsettled weather. A weakening disturbance will run into dry air and the high pressure that will be offshore. Much of the precipitation is expected to remain over New York and Pennsylvania, but some light precipitation will likely make it into New England by early Monday morning. This would be in the form of light snow showers and potentially some freezing rain/drizzle.
A milder air mass will begin to advect into New England during this time, and with residual cold air at the surface from the weekend, some mixed precipitation will be possible. Regardless of precipitation type Sunday night to Monday morning, it will be very light, low-impact and scattered in nature. It will also be pushed south, leaving southern New England with the higher chance of seeing anything.
Below: GFS showing a very small, compact weather system moving into New England Monday morning. This little system will be fizzling as it moves eastward, so if it can produce much of anything remains to be seen:
A more organized frontal system will cross New England from Monday afternoon through Tuesday. A primary low pressure system over James Bay in Canada will swing its fronts into New England. This will provide a southerly flow with a warm front lifting through the region. This will lead to rain being the primary precipitation type on Tuesday. With that said, there is a window for some wintry precipitation before a transition to plain rain.
Temperatures will spike into the 40s north to 50s south on Tuesday, allowing for plain rain region-wide, eventually. Before the milder air makes it to the surface, some mixed precipitation or freezing rain will be possible Tuesday morning across portions of northern New England. A quick quarter to half inch of rain will be possible region-wide. This will be a progressive system and will likely be wrapping up by Tuesday evening, if not earlier.
After a brief drying interval behind this system, another storm will likely approach for the Wednesday to Thursday time frame. The exact timing of this system will need to be hammered down in the coming days. The current spread in the track remains large, ranging from well inland in New England to south of Long Island. The preceding system will drag its cold front across the region Tuesday night, bringing cooler air with it compared to Tuesday.
With this cooler air filtering into the region, the track of the storm will likely determine precipitation types across New England (who gets rain, who gets snow and which precipitation type is more dominant). The farther inland the low tracks, the farther north the rain/snow line would be pushed.
As of now, early trends paint a picture of potential snow in the mountains and interior with rain and mixing and rain closer to the coast. This is early and everything is still subject to change. The timing of when the heaviest precipitation comes through will also play a role in precipitation type. This is all if the storm tracks close enough to bring steady precipitation.
Below: Model roundup (GFS,ECMWF, CMC & AIFS) for Wednesday night to Thursday morning:
Another system may move through around next weekend. This currently looks to be a northern stream system, possibly a clipper, but confidence in how this plays out is extremely low at this point. Should it pan out, it would likely be snow showers for most. Very cold air may follow for next weekend.
Comments