An area of low pressure will pass to New England’s north Friday. This will drag a cold front across the region and rotate in a wave of energy. This wave of energy will likely lead to multiple rounds of storms across western areas. Generally, the further west you are in New England, the more rain and thunderstorms you will see. Here's a breakdown of what to expect.
All of Vermont is under a flood watch for this event due to the fact that the threshold for flash flooding is so low at this point thanks to weeks of localized heavy rain events. Vermont also has the highest chance of seeing multiple rounds of showers and storms. Any storm that forms today will have the capability of producing heavy rainfall. While widespread flash flooding is highly unlikely, localized problems could arise in the areas that get hit the hardest.
The wave of storms and showers will likely arrive into Vermont and western Massachusetts around mid-morning. Storm training (when multiple storms move over the same area) will be possible as this wave moves in a northeast direction. The wave will likely be limited to the western half of New England through the White Mountains of New Hampshire for much of the day. The eastern half of New England will likely see mostly cloudy skies, but stay generally dry in the morning through midday.
HRRR showing the wave continue northeast around midday:
Storms fill back across western areas this afternoon:
It will take a little while for the wave to push further south and east. Southern New England, southeast New Hampshire and western Maine likely won't see storms arrive until the evening with some not seeing anything until around sunset. Storms will begin to diminish after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Eastern Maine likely won't see thunderstorms, but rather regular showers overnight as the line continues to weaken as it pushes east.
While a severe thunderstorm outbreak remains unlikely, a few storms could become severe, mainly west, with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. Hail is also a possibility, mainly across western areas. A brief, isolated tornado is also possible across western areas, although the overall chance is very low (a 2% chance for southern Vermont and western Massachusetts and Connecticut).
Eastern New England will likely have trouble forming severe storms due to cloud cover. Should clouds be able to break up in the early afternoon across eastern areas, it would support more storms and stronger storms in the late afternoon to evening.
The cold front responsible for all of this weather will lower humidity for the weekend. Dew points are looking to drop to the upper 50s to low 60s for by Sunday. This will create some very refreshing nights after so many warm, muggy ones recently. Some left over showers will be possible Saturday morning, but after that, the weekend is looking fantastic with partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures.
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