As of Wednesday morning, Hurricane Milton is now a very high end category four hurricane with sustained winds at 155mph. The hurricane is moving northeast and is expected to make landfall overnight tonight into Thursday morning. Yesterday the storm began an eyewall replacement cycle, which caused some weakening.
Milton is expected to continue to weaken as it approaches Florida today as the storm interacts with a front in the Gulf of Mexico. This front will create wind shear and dry air, which is not conducive to hurricane development and strengthening. The storm is beginning to show signs of this more hostile environment for hurricanes.
The storm is now expected to make landfall as a category four, so the overall weakening will unfortunately not be too significant. The hurricane had been forecast to make landfall as a category three over the past couple days. The storm will be expanding as it weakens, which will broaden impacts.
Global models are honing in on a landfall just south of Tampa. The highest storm surge threat will be to the south of the landfall point. Currently a surge of 10-15 feet is possible from south of Tampa through Boca Grande. A surge of five feet is possible across much of Florida's west coast.
Along with significant storm surge flooding that comes with a major hurricane, inland flooding from rainfall remains a possibility. The most rain will fall on the north side of the hurricane. A band of 6-12 inches of rain is possible from Tampa through Orlando and over to the east coast around Daytona Beach. The Weather Prediction Center has placed central Florida into the "high" category (level 4 of 4) for excessive rainfall. This is the highest threat level and represents the potential for major flash floods.
Milton will remain a hurricane as it passes through central Florida. As the storm exits off the east coast, it is expected to maintain category one strength. The storm may still be a category two as it passes near the Orlando area. This will allow for strong winds to push well inland in Florida. Large amounts of power outages will likely stretch across all of central Florida. Right at the west coast near landfall, extreme wind warnings will be likely with wind gusts over 100mph possible as the storm comes ashore.
As for timing, conditions will continue to deteriorate throughout the day today from west to east. Hurricane conditions are expected by Wednesday evening for the west coast. Conditions will continue to deteriorate from west to east into Wednesday night to early Thursday morning. The storm will continue to push through the state throughout Thursday morning. Milton is expected to move off the east coast of Florida by Thursday afternoon.
Below: Expected weather early Thursday morning (1st image), Thursday mid-morning (2nd image) and Thursday afternoon (3rd image):
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