In a not-so-surprising turn, weather models have shifted on exactly how the Rex Block sets up for later this week. This isn't surprising since models tend to have difficulty deciphering what blocking patterns will do. This, in turn, decreases confidence in longer term forecasts. It now looks like the Rex Block (a high pressure located directly north of a low pressure) will break down quicker than initially expected.
This pattern entered the forecast late last week. After watching the forecasts for a couple days, I wrote an article about this pattern change on Saturday, June 17. What the models got right about this pattern at that time was that northern New England would see the most effects with the highest temperatures. Southern New England would see a warm-up, but not to the extent of northern areas. With that said, here's the latest on this pattern:
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
Thursday will see temperatures climb into the low to mid 80s for northern New England and the 70s for southern New England as it appears the hottest temperatures will remain to New England's northwest, in Quebec. Winds are looking to come out of the south/southeast as a ridge of high pressure sits in the Gulf of Maine. This will allow more clouds and potentially some isolated showers (mainly across Connecticut) to creep into southern New England. Cloud cover and any kind of easterly wind will help keep temperatures from shooting up in southern areas.
Friday will be similar to Thursday, although temperatures may rise a bit from Thursday in southern New England. Clouds will increase region-wide as energy from the system to our south begins to creep northward. There will also be a higher chance for showers across more of the region. The last thing that will be increasing is humidity. Along with the energy from the system, the flow will also pull in much more humid air from the deep south.
WEEKEND
The weekend is looking pretty unsettled as the southern system continues its push northward. Scattered thunderstorms are looking likely for both Saturday and Sunday. The main threat with these storms will be tropical-like downpours. Some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible, but a widespread severe event is not anticipated at this time. As has been the case recently, it will not be raining all the time over the weekend, just scattered showers and storms.
Thunderstorms and downpours popping on Saturday (1st image) and Sunday (2nd image):
Dew points are looking to shoot into the mid 60s north to even reaching 70 south. This will feel quite oppressive as this is the first time this season there will be real humidity. Afternoon highs will likely be in the low 80s in southern and central New England with mid to upper 70s in northern areas. With the very humid conditions, overnight lows will remain warm.
BEYOND
This pattern change was more of a shift in the pattern that has been in place for the last couple weeks. That is to say that the overall blocked up pattern is not going anywhere. After this weekend, New England will likely remain unsettled with cooler conditions returning. This overall unsettled pattern shows no signs of breaking down anytime soon.
8-14 day outlooks showing heat in the country's mid section with generally cooler conditions on the east and west coasts. This has been the case for nearly all of June. You can also see New England remaining unsettled with above average precipitation.
I am so sick of being cold. Where the hell is summer
Thank you! This is the kind of weather reporting we used to get with the weather channel. This is what I have been looking for, for a long time. Thank you doing this!