It's been a rather stubbornly chilly start to spring for much of New England thus far. This is looking to change next week as well above average temperatures are looking increasingly likely. On top of this, it's also looking like New England may see a prolonged (by April standards) stretch of dry weather.
The dry weather kicks off over the weekend, with sunny to mostly sunny conditions expected. It will be slightly below average through the weekend, with the warming trend beginning Sunday afternoon. Afternoon high temperatures look to tick up a bit more each day through Wednesday or Thursday.
By Tuesday, temperatures will likely be in the 70s in southern New England and 60s in northern New England. Either Wednesday or Thursday will likely be the peak in temperatures. Northern New England could see temperatures shoot close to 70 while southern New England will likely be well into the 70s and potentially get close to, if not reach, 80 in spots. The one expectation will be at the coast. It's that time of the year, the coast will be noticeably cooler.
This warmth is being set up by a deep layer ridge that will be pushing eastward and eventually settle over the northeast, naturally including New England. This ridging will allow not only the warm temps, but dry conditions. This sets up anticyclone conditions. These conditions are more indicative of mid to late May.
These conditions coming next week were in question as a weak frontal boundary may have been looking to push this ridge further south and keep it out of New England. Frontal boundaries often "steal" warm, spring-like weather from New England in April and early May by setting up what could be described as a force field, keeping warm weather just south of New England while New England is stuck in the 40s with lots of clouds and showers.
The latest model runs are showing that a frontal boundary sagging south into New England is now unlikely. Without this boundary, the temperatures will have nothing blocking them from soaring. In some places, highs could reach 20 degrees above average.
Despite the well above average warmth and rather unusual pattern for early April, record breaking warmth remains unlikely. This ridge will very likely break down by the end of next week, though above average temperatures are looking increasingly likely beyond this warm up.
