On Thursday, a low pressure system will zip through the middle of New England from northwest to southeast. This system will bring rain showers along with a decent temperature gradient across the region. This will come as a warm front will lift across southern and central New England. Areas southwest of this front will see some sun, drier weather and warm temperatures. Areas northeast of the front will see a mainly cloudy sky, showers and continued cool temperatures.
Exactly how far north and east the warm front pushes is an uncertainty, but it is safe to say that it will push through all of southern New England and into southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire. Where the front lies will be easy to determine as there will be a sharp drop off in temperatures ahead of it.
Areas that get into the warm sector will see temperatures climb to the mid 60s to upper 70s while northern New Hampshire and Maine will be limited to the low to mid 50s. The exception to these temperatures will be along the immediate coast, which will be kept cooler by a sea breeze and generally more cloud cover.
Temperature departure from average early Thursday afternoon:
As far as the rainfall goes, areas on the northeast side of the low pressure system will see the most numerous showers throughout the day. Across much of Maine and and the northern half of New Hampshire, rounds of showers will move through, which have already started. These showers will come in waves, with the last one exiting in the evening. Some convection is available, so some rumbles of thunder will also be possible along with brief downpours.
HRRR showing expected weather around midday today (1st image) and this evening (2nd image:
Total rainfall will be on the lighter side once again with this system. Most areas will see a quarter inch or less with the Maine Lakes Region seeing up to a half an inch. Areas where the warm front crosses will see little to no showers.
High pressure builds back in for Friday and Saturday, but temperatures will cool off once again for areas that saw mild temperatures today. Temperatures will generally stay on the cooler side for most during this time frame as onshore flow will bring some clouds and chilly ocean air into New England. It won't be notably cool for early May, but it's a return to the status quo that's been in place this week. Western New England will be able to warm more due to the lack of ocean influence.
Euro showing temperatures early Saturday afternoon. You can clearly see the cool ocean influence from east vs west:
Saturday night to Sunday will bring the next widespread rain maker for New England as a cold front gets dragged across New England thanks to an area of low pressure that will track near Canada's Hudson Bay. Showers will break out well in advance of this front, which will Ross New England late Sunday through Monday morning. Total rainfall currently looks like it will come in at a half inch or less for New England, but Sunday will be a cool, raw and wet day for most.
Temperatures will not cool off behind the front...in fact temperatures are looking to rise for most as ridging builds in for Monday and Tuesday, bringing more mild weather and sunshine. This progressive pattern looks to continue with another trough coming mid-week next week. The timing on features for next week can still change, but that's how it looks right now.
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