Rain and snow from today's system will continue through much of the day, at varying intensities. The initial round of precipitation through early this afternoon (and through the afternoon for Maine) is where a majority of snow accumulations will occur. This is mainly being driven by forcing along the system's warm front as it advances northward. A band of heavier snow is likely to set up just north of the rain/snow line.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon:
Snowfall rates could briefly make it to 0.5-1” an hour through the morning and into the afternoon. It continues to look like this will occur within a rather narrow band across northern New England. This band will set up along a zone from the New Hampshire Lakes Region to the White Mountains and through the Maine foothills. Winter weather advisories have been expanded overnight to include all of these areas.
These areas continue to have the best shot at 3-6 inches total. Lesser amounts will be seen north and west of this zone with less moisture to work with and weaker forcing and areas south of it will see less snowfall as rain showers continue to take over. While the setup isn't particularly conducive to extended periods of a wintry mix, a period of freezing rain will be possible as the transition from snow to plain rain occurs. A light glaze of ice will be possible before temperatures rise above freezing.
Below: Probability of an additional two inches of snow (at least) through the rest of today:
As the afternoon goes on, cold air damming across northern New England will weaken along with forcing as the warm front continues to lift northward. This will allow precipitation to lighten up and become more scattered in nature. It will also allow for the rain/snow line to push farther north, though areas from the Lakes Region northward will have seen a majority of their precipitation already fall by this point.
Showers will continue to be on and off through the afternoon across much of New England. Maine, being the farthest east, will likely remain in the steadier and widespread precipitation as the system continues to push eastward. Maine's coastal plain will likely see a transition to rain in the afternoon, but pretty much all interior areas will likely remain mainly snow.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon today:
Colder and drier air will push into the region behind the system's cold front, which will be pulled across the region from west to east through the afternoon and evening hours. This will allow for a gradual drying out process. Only a couple spot showers look to remain in New England by late this evening.
A secondary cold front will push into northern New England Friday morning. This front will slow down and likely stall out across southern New England later in the day. In the morning, it may provide an area of forcing for additional snow showers across the northern third of the region. A modest push of colder air will occur on Friday, with afternoon highs not rising much from morning lows across the north. Central and southern New England will see highs rise several degrees as the secondary cold front slows down.
An Alberta clipper will zip through New England, bringing another quick round of rain and snow showers. The system will move through at a rapid pace, bringing a round of light snow to the north of the track and a mix of rain and snow to the south of it. This will likely behave like Thursday's storm where the rain/snow line starts off in southern New England and rises northward Saturday morning. There will be less moisture and lighter precipitation rates on the south side of the track as well.
This system looks to play out as an initial burst of snowfall for much of New England early Saturday morning. Precipitation will likely become more scattered in nature heading into the afternoon as the rain/snow line pushes toward the mountains of northern New England (very similar to Thursday's storm). Overall, there will be less moisture and lighter precipitation on the south side of the track versus the north side.
Below: RGEM showing potential weather early Saturday morning (1st image) and Saturday afternoon (2nd image):
Areas that stay all snow (mainly the mountains and foothills northward) could see another 3-5 inches. Low elevations of northern New England and southern New England will likely see minor to no accumulations on the front end (and maybe back end as the colder air spills in). This will melt away as temperatures rise in the afternoon. The steadiest precipitation will likely occur in the morning with more scattered activity through the daylight hours.
Below: Current probability of at least 2 inches of snow from Friday evening to Saturday evening:
A sharp temperature gradient will be possible on Saturday with a wide range of temperatures across the region. Areas south of the track will get into the system's warm sector, allowing temperatures to spike into the mid 40s to low 50s. Areas well north of the track will get locked into colder air. Subtle changes in the track could have a big impact on temperatures in the afternoon.
Below: GFS showing possible temperatures early Saturday afternoon:
Alberta clippers often swing the door wide open for Arctic air to enter New England as they depart, and this one is no exception. Cold and breezy conditions will return for a two day bout for Sunday and Monday. Areas of New England that get into the warm sector on Saturday could see highs a good 15-20° colder on Sunday.
Temperatures currently look to moderate back toward average by Tuesday of next week. Cold high pressure will be in charge during this time. The next potential storm system to watch will come around midweek next week. All early signs are pointing toward a warm and wet storm with the potential for a soaking rain event as an intensifying low pressure system ejects from the Great Lakes. Should this come to fruition with a potent low pressure system, significant snowmelt would likely occur across the north along with the rainfall.
Below: Current weather map for next Wednesday (March 5):
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