An area of low pressure off the southeast coast has been strengthening as it slowly wobbles northward. This system, which is currently subtropical (has both tropical and non-tropical characteristics), will likely become tropical storm Ophelia. This storm will likely make landfall in North Carolina on Saturday, but the northern edge of the storm will likely push into New England Saturday afternoon. The system will slowly push north, leading to an unsettled few days.
SATURDAY
With New England just getting into the northern edge of the storm, rainfall will be greatest along the south coast, with gradually less and less rain the further north in New England you go. Showers will likely break out in southernmost New England early Saturday morning, with a steadier rain beginning in the late morning or afternoon.
Areas of New England south of the Mass Pike are certain to see a steady rain Saturday, with a half an inch to an inch plus of rain possible. There is considerable uncertainty in just how far north the steady rain pushes. The northern edge of the system will be battling dry air, so it will be difficult for rain to get going initially in areas north of Boston.
Model trends have shifted a bit southward in regards to the terminus of this band of rain. It looks like southern Massachusetts and points south will see a steady rain Saturday afternoon while northern Massachusetts, southern Vermont, southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine will see lighter showers. Further north will see cloudy skies and maybe a couple quick showers.
As for temperatures, it will be a bit of a backwards day for New England with the lowest temperatures in southern areas and gradually warming as you head north.The northern tier of New England will likely make it to 70° thanks to some sunshine. Southernmost New England will struggle to get out of the 50s thanks to the thick clouds, rain and breezy weather.
Speaking of breezy weather, there will be gusts of 25-35mph in southern New England. While this isn't damaging, it will certainly add to the very raw feel of the day.
SUNDAY
The unsettled weather will continue as the system very slowly pushes northward. As it does so, it will begin to fall apart, and will revert back to a subtropical (or post-tropical) system.
The system won't be potent, but clouds will linger and occasional showers will occur throughout the day. Like Saturday, these showers will likely be limited to southern and central New England, with northern areas remaining dry.
There will be a chance for some showers to become torrential downpours on Sunday, mainly in southwestern areas of New England, closer to the center of the storm. The storm's exact track will determine just how much rain falls.
There is a chance for some flash flooding to occur in southwestern areas Sunday, although these chances have been trending down.
Euro Model showing scattered shower and rain activity across southern and central areas Sunday afternoon, it likely won't be raining all day long:
Sunday will remain breezy and raw for southern and central New England with highs in the low to mid 60s. The northern tier will again escape the rain, with mostly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.
MONDAY
The subtropical low is looking to pass to New England's south on Monday. This will likely lead to another day of showers for southern and central New England. The speed of the exit will determine just how showery the day ends up. Right now, it looks like the system will be progressive. This means Monday morning will be cloudy and showery with clearing in the afternoon from west to east.
Northern New England, along with nearly all of Maine, will once again be dry, and a mostly sunny day is expected for Monday.
Weather map for Monday, showing the system to New England's south, the system will be moving eastward during the day:
BEYOND
After the system exits, high pressure is looking to build back into New England from Canada. The atmosphere will be dry, even by early fall standards, so after we get rid of this subtropical storm, New England will be looking at dry weather for the rest of the week.
High temperatures are looking to be mainly seasonable during this time frame. With Canadian high pressure in place along with calm, mainly clear conditions, morning lows will have the chance to be pretty chilly. These lows will drop into the 40s to low 50s. Some mountain towns may be able to drop into the upper 30s.
These cool nights and warm days will help get fall foliage rolling in northern areas next week.
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