The system that caused a major tornado outbreak yesterday evening in the country's midsection is shifting eastward toward New England. While this system will weaken significantly by the time it makes it to New England, there is still a possibility of strong to even severe thunderstorms.
Chances of stronger storms will be greatest in western New England, particularly western Massachusetts and Connecticut. These areas are the greatest concern for more widespread strong to severe storms. The main threat from these storms will be strong, damaging wind gusts embedded in the storms. Small hail is also possible. A brief tornado is extremely unlikely, but not impossible given the setup.
As this line of storms push eastward, the chances for strong storms diminishes. The further east you are in New England, the less likely you will see damaging storms, although standard thunderstorms will be possible all the way to the Atlantic. Despite this, there is always the chance of a rogue strong storm getting further east, so everyone should be prepared to receive severe weather warnings.
The overall threat has trended further south, with New Jersey expected to see the most widespread and strongest storms. This southward shift has moved Vermont out of the area of greatest concern for New England. Storms will still be possible in Vermont, though. The National Weather Service of Burlington states:
"Convective development will lie south of this boundary, and trends have been for initiation to take place further south. Still, across parts of the Adirondacks and southern Vermont, there remains enough instability and shear that there`s the potential, but dry air could inhibit updrafts as diurnal instability is also waning, which could keep activity from holding together as it reaches our forecast area."
The line of storms will likely impact western New England from 4pm-8pm. This line will continue to push east as the evening carries on. The line will likely impact southern New Hampshire, eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island from 6pm-10pm.
The storms will be coming on the heels of a strong cold front. The front will set up a chilly and breezy Sunday.
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