After a potent storm sliced through New England on Wednesday, much calmer (and colder) weather is in store through the weekend. This will come as an expansive and strong area of high pressure slides across the region. This bout of calm and cold conditions will be brief as a return to more mild and unsettled weather will follow heading into next week.
This strong area of high pressure will continue to build across the Great Lakes today. Today will be a cold day with continued cold air advection behind the storm. Highs will range from the mid 20s to mid 30s region-wide. Winds will remain blustery, though not to the extent of Thursday.
The area of high pressure will continue to strengthen and push eastward through Friday night and into Saturday morning. The high pressure system looks to peak in strength Saturday with a central pressure of 1,046-1,050mb. For reference, standard surface pressure (neither high nor low) is considered to be around 1,013mb.
Another point of reference is the fact that this high may approach Burlington, Vermont's all-time December high pressure record, which is 1,051mb. The city's all-time pressure record is 1,054mb. Most of New England's climate sites have a high pressure record in the low 1,050s. New England's strong high this weekend will continue to scoot across the region through the day Saturday.
This will result in a mainly sunny day on Saturday with lighter winds. The strongest high pressure systems are associated with cold air masses, and this one is no exception. Highs on Saturday will be similar to Friday, though the edge will be taken off in regards to the wind chills. Overnight lows will be cold with optimal radiational cooling conditions in place as the high will allow for clear skies and light winds. Lows will likely bottom out in the mid single digits to mid teens for most.
An arctic blast of air has entered into the upper Midwest, but this blast of very cold air will lose its intensity as it migrates eastward. The coldest of the air will migrate back into Canada before reaching the northeast, which will keep temperatures from becoming Arctic this weekend with highs in the mid 20s to mid 30s for most this weekend.
As the high pressure system continues to move eastward on Sunday, it will run into the warmer air over the Atlantic and begin to weaken as it slides offshore. This will set up another active and unsettled week for New England next week. There are three main systems to watch out for, with the first coming Sunday night into Monday morning. A weakening lead disturbance will run into the high pressure offshore. This system could produce some scattered light precipitation, but is poised to be a very minor event.
Below: Current weather map for Monday morning (December 16):
A more organized system will likely cross New England in the Monday night to Tuesday night time frame. This system is poised to track to the north of New England, lifting its warm front across the region, allowing for mainly rain showers across the region. This currently looks to feature much more moisture than the first event, but still not a significant amount. Preliminary totals look to be around a quarter to half inch.
The third system, which will come into the picture for late next week, is poised to be the strongest of the bunch. With that said, a very large spread in where the system will track is present, so whether this stronger system brings its highest impacts to New England or not remains to be seen. This system could bring more wintry precipitation to portions of New England, but probabilities favor a warmer solution as of now for much of the region. The trends will be watched all week long.
As far as temperatures go, after the weekend cold, a distinct warming trend will begin as a west-southwest flow takes hold, allowing a milder air mass into the region. Much of next week will likely be dominated by 40s for highs with 30s across the higher terrain and northern Maine. Temperatures at the end of next week are very uncertain as it will hinge on the track and timing of the storm system. Another cold weekend may be on tap next weekend as colder air wraps around the storm.
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