Stretch of Low-Impact & Milder Weather Incoming for New England
- Tim Dennis
- 4 days ago
- 4 min read
After being entrenched in a trough for the better part of spring so far, the overall pattern will finally be shifting as we head toward the end of this week. This shift will allow for the persistently chilly days with periodic soakings to come to an end for now. After yet another cooler day on Wednesday, temperatures will now be trending up for the rest of the week. There will be a cool down moving into Easter Sunday, but this will likely bring New England back to seasonal averages.
A ridge of high pressure sets up to New England's south on Friday, allowing for a more southerly flow to begin. With at least partial sunshine, this will help boost temperatures a couple notches warmer than Thursday. Saturday is poised to be a warm day across the region as the next frontal system begins to approach Friday night.
This system will lift its warm front through New England Friday night and into Saturday morning. Scattered, light showers will be possible along the front as it lifts northward. Once fully within the warm sector, showers will become very isolated and some clearing will be possible. Temperatures in the mid-levels will shoot well into the 50s to low 60s. With at least partial clearing once the warm front passes, sufficient mixing should allow temperatures to climb into the 60s north and 70s south.
Saturday does look primed for warm temperatures. It's always a little difficult to pinpoint exact temperatures in the middle of spring, but multiple factors are lining up to allow for the potential of temperatures well into the 70s and possibly low 80s for southern New England. Very warm temperatures in the mid-levels, a stiff southwest flow to keep the cool ocean air at bay and very limited shower activity will be the main driving forces. The wild card will be the amount of sunshine.
Once New England gets fully within the warm sector, at least partial clearing should occur. The amount of clearing will be what decides whether or not the upper 70s and low 80s can be achieved. Should clouds be more stubborn, not as much mixing will occur and temperatures will be held in check. Plenty of sun will allow for deep mixing combined with the strong sun angle this time of year. We're leaning toward the warmer end for southern New England as these setups can see at least some breaks in the clouds begin to form by the early afternoon, if not more.
Below: CMC showing potential temperatures Saturday afternoon:
For the northern tier of New England, it will likely be a bit cooler, albeit still mild given the time of year (it just won't be summery like southern New England). More clouds and generally more shower activity closer to the center of the low pressure system make it more likely for temperatures to be held somewhat in check, especially for northern and eastern Maine. Showers will still be more scattered in nature rather than a shield of widespread rain for the northern tier.
Below: Euro showing potential weather Saturday afternoon:
The frontal system's cold front will be delayed for a time due to a strong ridge of high pressure offshore. This will also give temperatures time to warm during the day on Saturday. The cold front will pass through later Saturday into Sunday morning, bringing an end to the very warm conditions. High pressure will build to New England's northwest with the low pressure remaining over the Canadian Maritimes. This will bring a breezy and cooler day.
Despite the cold front and cooler weather, it should still get back to around seasonable levels for many on Easter, thanks to the return of more sunshine and a sung angle equivalent to late summer. The high pressure to the northwest may bring a glancing shot of polar air to the northern tier, allowing for a generally cooler day than central and southern New England.
Below: AIFS showing temperature departure from average Sunday afternoon:
Heading into next week, the United States will be moving away from a ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east setup, as mentioned in the beginning. This will be trending toward a more zonal flow entering into next week (which is when the jet stream lays flatter across the US without pronounced ridges or troughs).
With that said, recent guidance does show weak ridging in the east and weak troughing in the west. This kind of setup is favorable for milder air spreading across the United States, allowing for generally seasonable to mild conditions to spread across much of the country, as seen in the Climate Prediction Center's 6-10 day outlook below.
This setup also doesn't lend itself to any high-impact, soaking type storms. The pattern may stay on the active side with weak, moisture-starved systems darting through on Saturday, Monday night and Tuesday and maybe later next week, but these systems aren't poised to become very strong. They may bring continued brief cool-downs similar to what was seen yesterday and what will be seen on Sunday.
Below: Current seven day precipitation forecast:
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