An area of low pressure will form and track across coastal New England during the day Monday into Tuesday. This will bring potentially washout conditions across most of New England during the daytime. The atmosphere will be primed for some locally heavy downpours during the storm.
Scattered showers will continue throughout this morning across New England, with the exception of Maine. Rainfall will likely continue to fill in across the region as Monday morning wears on, with rainfall becoming widespread across all of New England by the afternoon and into the evening.
First image shows early morning showers while the second image shows more widespread and heavy downpours Monday afternoon:
Rainfall rates will likely vary throughout the day, sometimes it will be a drizzle, other times it could be a torrential downpour. The greatest amount of rain and the area with the best chance of seeing torrential downpours will be areas closer to the low, i.e. southeast Massachusetts, Rhode Island and the Maine coastline.
These areas could see rainfall rates exceed an inch an hour at times. It's worth noting that while these areas stand the best chance of seeing heavy rainfall, most of New England will be primed for heavy rainfall rates as well.
The area of low pressure is currently looking to move north-northeast into Maine Monday night through Tuesday. This will lead to lingering rain for at least Tuesday morning for northern Maine while the rest of New England begins to dry out. Some wrap-around showers may also be present Tuesday morning across northern Vermont and northern New Hampshire as well.
HRRR showing continued rain and scattered showers across the northern third of New England Tuesday morning:
When all is said and done Tuesday evening, New England will likely have picked up a widespread 1-2 inches of rain. The areas with the best chance of overachieving will be across southeast Massachusetts and the White Mountains to Maine mountains. There will very likely be areas of New England that end up with 3-4 inches. The exact track of the low will determine exactly who sees the most rainfall.
With a continued trend in rainfall rates increasing, the flood threat has risen as well. Flood watches have been posted for much of New Hampshire, southern Maine and eastern Massachusetts. This system is moving quickly, so storms stalling out and sitting over the same area for hours on end like last week is unlikely this time around. Still, when talking about 2-3 inches of rain, localized flooding issues could always arise, especially as the ground is still over saturated from last week's events and Lee.
The areas hit hard from flooding last week, as well as Downeast Maine, that saw several inches of rain from Lee, will not need too much more rain to renew issues. The threshold fro flash flooding to occur is less than 3 inches in 3 hours. This could certainly happen where torrential downpours set up.
After this storm, it will be smooth sailing for New England's weather for the rest of the week as high pressure builds in, bringing dry conditions, sunshine, seasonable temperatures and low humidity.
High pressure builds in for New England after the early week storm:
Comments