New England's stormy weather will continue through this week. The storms this week will look very different from last week. Unlike the past three storms, this one will not be a multi-hazard storm with damaging winds, flooding rains and coastal flooding all non-factors. This will strictly be a snow event.
ALERTS
TIMING
Light snow will break out just after midnight across Connecticut and Rhode Island before gradually spreading north through the morning. By daybreak, light snow showers will have overspread most of New England. It will take a bit longer for the snow to reach Maine.
Expected weather around 2am Tuesday (1st image) and around 8am Tuesday (2nd image):
By the early afternoon, the center of the system will begin to make its closest pass to southern New England. The system will also be strengthening slowly at this time. This will allow snow to pick up in intensity and fill in across New England. The snowfall rate likely won't really be intense at this time, just steadier. Some mixing and rain will likely occur near the southern New England coast by the early afternoon as well.
Expected weather in the early afternoon:
Snow will gradually begin to gradually wind down from west to east during the evening hours. Maine will remain in the snow through the evening as the storm center crosses into downeast Maine. The storm will continue to strengthen at this time, so while much of New England will be winding down snowfall rates, eastern Maine will likely see the heaviest snowfall rates of the storm at this time. Some rain and mixing will likely occur very close to the Maine coast.
Expected weather Tuesday evening:
The storm should just about be over for everyone by midnight, except for typical upslope snow showers in the mountains.
SNOW
It's nice to only have one real impact to write about here. The entire region will see light to moderate snow showers all day long. When all is said and done, much of New England will likely have 3-6 inches of new snow on the ground. Total snowfall will generally increase the further north and east you go in New England, away from the coast.
The storm will be its strongest in Maine, so northern and eastern Maine will see the most snow. This area will have the best chance to see a half foot to foot of snow. Some 6-7 inch amounts will be possible in the White and Maine mountains. Generally lesser amounts will be seen in southern New England as the storm will be weaker when it passes Cape Cod. The snow will generally be of the light, fluffy variety.
The storm's track has shifted north dramatically over the past 36 hours. This did two things: it pushed the more moderate snowfall totals further north into northern New England. It also allows for mild air to work into southern New England, allowing for a mix and change to rain near the coast, cutting down on amounts across the coastal plain.
A few hundredths of an inch of ice will be possible in areas where mixing occurs. This could create slick roads in areas that don't see too much snow.
The storm is looking to track between Cape Cod and the benchmark. The storm will then enter the Gulf of Maine before tracking across downeast Maine. This track is a classic example of snow across the interior with a rain/mix near the coast. Below shows the typical result of a storm track inside the benchmark. Not that this storm will not produce heavy snow in the mountains, but it will produce more snow there than in southern New England.
THE NEXT STORM
Friday will provide New England's next storm chance. A storm system will likely form off the Mid-Atlantic coast and travel offshore of New England sometime Friday afternoon or night. This track once again puts New England on the cold side of the storm, allowing for frozen precipitation This storm will likely be stronger than the Tuesday storm, but is also currently forecast to track further away, leading to lighter snowfall from a glancing blow. The further south in New England you are, the more likely you are to see some snow from this system.
As always, we need to watch the trends this week as the Tuesday storm was looking to pass well offshore before trending back closer to New England. With a stronger storm, this one will be able to drop several inches of snow given a more favorable track. A key for this storm will be just how fast the storm can strengthen. A blast of cold air will be trying to work into New England for the weekend. This colder air could provide some fuel for strengthening.
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