A coastal low will move to the south of New England today into Monday. This will bring southern and central New England accumulating snow. The storm will track near the 40/70 benchmark, which in late January would typically mean big snow for much of New England, but a distinct lack of cold air will likely hold some areas back when it comes to snow totals. This will allow a rain or mix at the start in portions of the region. Overall, the general thought process on what this storm will bring hasn't changed much in the past 24 hours.
ALERTS
TIMING
Light rain and snow has already begun to overspread southern New England this morning. This will continue to spread north and fill in as the morning continues. The storm will initially have to battle dry air and the coastal low will is still in the process of forming. Until this low forms, precipitation will remain on the lighter side, except in Connecticut and southern Massachusetts.
Radar as of 8am:
By the early afternoon, precipitation will likely have overspread all of southern and central New England. This precipitation will be a rain/snow mix or plain rain across much of southern and central New England. Areas that will have the best chance to see mostly snow by the early afternoon will be the higher elevations of southern and central New England. (Worcester Hills, Berkshires, southern Green Mountains and Monadnocks). With temperatures right around, or just above freezing, some areas may go back and forth between rain and snow with some freezing rain and icing possible.
Expected weather around 2pm today:
By the evening hours, rain, or a rain/snow mix, may still be ongoing across the Merrimack River Valley, Connecticut River Valley and eastern Massachusetts while the Worcester Hills and Berkshires see mostly snow. Most of northern New England will likely have switched to all snow by the evening. The major question that remains will be just how quickly can the colder air arrive in southern New England to switch the rain and mixing over to snow.
In the evening, a dry slot may work into southern New England. This wouldn't completely shut off the precipitation, but it would support the expansion of mixed precipitation and freezing drizzle over snow as precipitation rates become lighter. Areas at or above 500 feet in southern New England will have the best chance to see continued snow at this time.
Expected weather around 6pm this evening:
Overall, it looks like the daylight hours on Sunday will see minimal accumulations and impact for most. The Worcester Hills and Berkshires will see the most impact before sunset. The storm will continue to strengthen and cool as it makes its closest pass to New England, likely Monday morning. The overnight hours will be when the precipitation will be at its strongest. The rain/snow line will definitely start collapsing southward by the overnight.
The rain/snow mix will transition to snow generally from northwest to southeast (and from higher elevations to lower elevations). The rain/snow line likely won't make it to Boston until late at night Sunday night into early Monday morning.
Expected weather around midnight Monday:
One of the bigger changes to the forecast overnight has been the quicker exit of the system on Monday morning. This comes as the system continues to pull away and a drier air mass pours into the region from the north. Snow will likely wind down starting around sunrise in western New England with snow showers gradually decaying through the morning. The afternoon will likely see some lingering snow showers, but minimal impact.
Expected weather early Monday afternoon:
SNOWFALL
This system seems to be behaving more like a spring-time snowstorm rather than one in the heart of winter. That is to say elevation will likely play a major role in snowfall amounts, especially for southern New England. With that said, confidence is highest in the snowfall amounts on the map below in western and central Massachusetts and south-central New Hampshire.
The only changes to our snowfall map from yesterday evening's update was to dial back the 5-8 inch zone a bit and extend the 1-3 inch zone a bit further south. As stated previously, confidence is highest in the Worcester Hills, Berkshires, southern Greens and Monadnocks. These areas will see snowfall without mixing the longest. Still, temperatures at or just above freezing may make it difficult for the snow to stick initially. Despite this, snowfall rates of 1 to 1.5 inches an hour will be possible for several hours in these areas.
The rest of southern New England and the New Hampshire seacoast will have trouble accumulating snow for a while thanks to mixing, icing and the snow consistency, which will be heavy and wet. This type of snow doesn't pile up quickly. This will keep amounts across the river valleys and coastal plain lower.
Heading closer to the coast in Massachusetts, particularly Boston and point south will only see a couple inches as the transition to all snow will take most of the storm to complete. These areas will likely still be mixing or raining during the heaviest precipitation. The further south and east you are in New England, the less snow will fall.
This will be a central New England storm with lighter snowfall intensity in northern areas and mild air and mixing in southern areas. Northern Massachusetts, southern Vermont and southern New Hampshire (away from the coast) are in the prime spot for the most snow.
The snow will be on the wetter and heavier side. This is the kind of snow that will stick to everything. When getting into the half foot mark with this kind of snow could result in some power outages. Outages will not be widespread, but some more scattered issues could arise in areas that will see the most snow.
WIND
The storm will be strengthening as it passes south of New England which will support some gusty winds. The storm will strengthen rapidly, so winds are not expected to reach damaging levels. Still, gusts of 25-35mph will be possible across the interior with gusts 35-50mph along the coast. These gusts in the interior will only put more strain on weighed down branches.
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