Models are now starting to come into a semblance of agreement in regards to where New England's Tuesday storm will track. In a completely expected turn, after pushing the storm well south of New England, most guidance has begun to edge the storm further north. At this time, it is looking increasingly likely that the storm will pass New England near the benchmark. This increases chances for an impactful snowstorm for much of southern and central New England.
The overall setup for the storm will involve a primary low tracking up the Appalachian Mountains and into the Mid-Atlantic early Tuesday morning. As it does so, a secondary low will form off the Mid-Atlantic coast and strengthen as the primary low weakens. This all supports a colder storm with mostly snow falling across New England.
The biggest issue for snowfall will be the lack of cold air ahead of the storm. Record high temperatures are possible on Saturday with Sunday and Monday only a notch cooler. Colder air will be filtering into New England on Tuesday as a cold front drops south. Also, models are showing a deep low pressure system, with the central pressure dropping to around the 980mb range.
The deeper the low pressure system is, the easier it will be for the storm to overcome a lack of cold air. These two factors will help the system overcome the initial lack of cold air and allow for accumulating snow for most. There could still be some mixing and rain near the coast. Just how far inland the mixing gets is still a question that needs to be answered.
It needs to be stated that if the storm continues to tick north, as has been the case for snowstorms this winter, then more mixing and less snow will be seen across southern New England. A southward tick would only increase the chances of mostly snow given it stays close enough to deliver steady snow. Right now, it looks as though only the immediate coast and Cape Cod will see mixing and rain issues.
With a deepening storm passing near the benchmark, along with plenty of energy, the storm will be capable of producing steadier and at times heavy snowfall rates. While there remains too much wiggle room for a more traditional snowfall map, there will be the potential for 6+" in the jackpot zone. Exactly where the jackpot zone sets up is to be determined, but it will likely be somewhere in the dark blue area on the map above.
It continues to look like there will be a sharp northern cutoff in snow totals, with much of northern New England seeing little snowfall and accumulation. The exception here will be areas near the Massachusetts border as well as southwest Maine. Much of Vermont, the White Mountains and interior Maine may miss out on the bulk of the storm.
In previous posts, we talked about the importance of interaction (or phasing) between the northern stream energy and the southern stream energy. At this time, it does not look like the two energy pieces will interact all that much. That is helping to keep the storm's track suppressed offshore. That will also help keep the storm colder with the highest snow impacts in southern New England.
As for timing, it looks like the storm will enter the region early Tuesday morning, spreading precipitation from southwest to northeast. The peak of the storm is currently looking like it will be Tuesday morning into the early afternoon before a gradual tapering in the afternoon. This storm could be moving along rather quickly, which would help keep snowfall amounts down to an extent.
Euro model showing potential weather early Tuesday afternoon:
A period of strong winds will likely accompany the storm. This, along with high astronomical tides, may result in some coastal flooding issues. As always, timing will be crucial in determining just how impactful coastal flooding will be. At this time, the concern is highest for the Tuesday early afternoon high tide. Initial signals show up to 2 foot surge. This threat will be highest along the eastern Massachusetts coast into New Hampshire.