While it's not a completely perfect setup for Independence weekend (Thursday-Sunday), washout potential overall remains minimal with many more dry hours than wet hours collectively. Saturday will be the most unsettled day from the Fourth of July through Sunday. Temperatures in the 80s will dominate New England during this time.
WEDNESDAY
The first of a series of frontal boundaries to move through New England will be a warm front today. This front will hardly be noticed as it will be a dry passage. It will likely cause an increase in clouds as well as a change to a more southerly wind direction. This front will usher in a more humid air mass, but the surface will remain rather dry, so humidity levels will remain low for Wednesday. This dry air will also aid in keeping showers out of the picture.
INDEPENDENCE DAY
A weak cold front will slowly traverse New England during the day as it dissipates. This will mainly lead to an increase in clouds. With that said, the atmosphere will have plenty of moisture in it for a couple showers and thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon and evening. Many areas will remain dry all day and even the areas that see a shower will be dry a majority of the time.
The lack of storm coverage on Thursday can be attributed to a lack of instability. Highs will be what you'd expect them to be on the Fourth of July; 80s region-wide. The front will be waning as it crosses the region and will not be able to suppress increasing humidity levels.
FRIDAY
There won't be much of a change in the air mass over New England after the weak cold front on Thursday. This will bring a day similar to Thursday, though, collectively, there may be more breaks in the cloud cover. Isolated showers and storms can't be ruled out, but, like Thursday, they will be limited in nature with many more areas remaining dry all day.
SATURDAY
On Saturday, New England will once again be placed within the warm sector of a storm system passing to the north. This will lift a warm front through the region on Saturday with a cold front tailing behind. Within this warm sector, scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible. Out of all the days in this stretched out holiday weekend, Saturday should feature the most widespread storm activity.
The day shouldn't be an all day washout for much of New England. The better chance for more wet hours will be across western New England (Vermont, western Massachusetts). With that said, the heaviest of the rainfall is currently poised to track north of New England, but trends will need to be watched over the coming days. The atmosphere will be moisture-rich, so any showers or thunderstorms in New England will be able to produce downpours. The severe storm threat looks minimal at this time.
Showers and storms may come in two main waves, one in the morning as the warm front lifts through the region with more storms firing up into the afternoon and evening as the cold front approaches. Time will bring a clearer image of when the best chances for wet weather during the day will be.
SUNDAY
Some showers may linger across portions of New England into Sunday morning as the cold front moves through the region Saturday night. Chances for showers should decrease later in the day with brightening skies, exactly how this plays out will depend on the timing of the front.
While humidity levels will likely fall from Saturday, muggy conditions will generally stick around. It will remain very warm for most as well with Sunday potentially being the hottest day of this long weekend for southern and eastern New England. Areas farther north and west will be slightly cooler as they will be deeper behind the front.
