The parade of slow moving low pressure systems moving through New England will continue this weekend as a cut off low slowly pushes from the Great Lakes into New England. Saturday is looking like a washout for pretty much all of New England with bands of heavy rain moving through all day. Here's a look at impacts and timing:
RAINFALL
As the storm system slowly pushes eastward across New England, it will send plumes of moisture through the region. This system will be like most of the others we've seen throughout June, that is to say the intensity of the rain will vary throughout the day. Sometimes it will be drizzle and other times it will be a heavy downpour. The rain may even shut off completely for some time as well. Some embedded thunder is possible, mainly across southern New England.
The main issue is that the downpours is that they will be very slow moving. Areas that get caught under one will have the potential to pick up quite a bit of rain. The rainfall map below shows what the potential for rain is, some towns and cities that escape the heaviest downpours will likely underachieve. Areas most likely to overachieve would be the White and Maine mountains, where a spot 2+ inch amount is possible.
Cape Cod will likely get into a dry slot on Saturday afternoon as the storm center passes either directly over the Cape, or just to the south. Should this occur, Cape Cod and the islands will see much less rain than everyone else. Anyone looking to go to the place with the highest chance of being dry tomorrow afternoon should head to the Cape.
Clouds and showers will linger for much of Sunday as New England's dreary pattern marches on (but there are finally indications of a pattern change, more on that later). Eastern Maine will still be in the steadier rain as the bulk of precipitation moves through Saturday night into Sunday.
Expected weather at 2pm Saturday. You can the center passing Cape Cod. This model does not show a dry slot developing, but it is possible:
FLOODING
The overall flood risk is rather low with this storm. Remember, the amounts on the map above cover about 36 hours, from Friday night through midnight Monday. Despite this, the bulk of rain will fall on Saturday during the day as the heavier downpours move through. Some street and urban flooding will be possible during the downpours.
Flash flooding is not too much of a concern given, again, that the inch plus of rain will fall over the course of a day and a half. The downpours will be moving slowly enough, however, that the weather prediction center did put much of New England in the "marginal" category for excessive rainfall, meaning isolated flash floods are possible.
TEMPERATURES
There's no other way to put it: Saturday will be as gloomy, dreary and raw of a day that New England can possibly get this time of year. Temperatures will not rise all that much from morning lows in most places, similar to two weeks ago (although it will be plenty warmer than two Saturdays ago). Much of the day will be stuck in the 50s in northern New England, eventually breaking into the low 60s. Southern New England will be in the low to mid 60s all day with Connecticut maybe being able to top 70.
TIMING
Initial showers and downpours will develop overnight Friday into early Saturday morning. The downpours will become more numerous as day breaks Saturday. These bands of steady rain will continually cycle through the region all day Saturday.
Most of New England will see the amount of downpours diminish Saturday evening. Eastern Maine will see their most downpours begin Saturday evening and continue through Sunday. The rest of New England will see continued showers and maybe a thunderstorm Sunday afternoon.
Expected weather 2pm Sunday. Some steadier rain across eastern Maine, continued light showers for the rest of New England:
BEYOND
The associated cold front with this system will stall to New England's south, leading to continued cooler conditions on Monday and Tuesday. A major pattern change is possible into mid week next week as a Rex Block could develop. A Rex Block is a block where a high pressure system is located directly (or nearly directly) north of a low pressure system. This could bring New England warmer, drier weather by the middle to late next week.
There are still questions as to how all of this sets up, but it could bring New England summer like heat with dry conditions. Interestingly, the higher north you go in New England, the more confidence increases in warmer, drier weather. The highest chance for mid summer-like heat will be to New England's north in the James Bay area of Canada. This is reflected in the NOAA's 6-10 day temperature outlook (this outlook also has some pretty strong signals of a Rex Block).
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