Round of Light Spring Snow (& rain) on the way to New England
- Tim Dennis
- Mar 23
- 4 min read
Monday's system will involve a trough from the Great Lakes moving to the north of New England. A surface low may develop along the storm's triple point (where a cold, warm and occluded front meet) and rotate into New England. This system continues to look like it will bring a shot of snow for many in New England at the onset Monday morning before changing to rain from south to north during the day Monday.
The initial shield of precipitation has been trending toward a later start time, with many likely not seeing it until after daybreak Monday. This shield of precipitation will come ahead of the system's warm front as it lifts through the region. Light snow will spread from southwest to northeast through the morning hours. Initial snow will mix with and then change to rain from south to north through the morning hours given the warm front.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around sunrise Monday (1st image) and around midday (2nd image):
The air mass is dry over New England right now, and it will take time for it to saturate. By Monday afternoon, precipitation will likely fill in across the region and become steadier as a secondary low forms around the Gulf of Maine. Southern New England and the northern New England coastal plain will likely be seeing rain while much of interior northern New England remains snow as colder air gets trapped in place. Snowfall will likely be steady at times.
The system is fairly progressive and widespread precipitation will begin to shut down from west to east rather quickly through the evening. Eastern Maine will naturally be in the widespread precipitation the longest and will begin to shut down there through the overnight hours Monday.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around mid-afternoon Monday (1st image) and Monday evening (2nd image):
Overall, trends among high resolution guidance have been toward the rain/snow line stalling farther south in northern New England. Much of northern New England away from the coastal plain will likely see mainly snow from this system. The rain/snow line should still push through southern New England rather easily through Monday morning. Naturally, the Berkshires and Worcester Hills will take longer to switch over.
With the trends toward a generally colder storm, the potential for light snow accumulations have been pulled a bit farther south. We’ve reached the point in the season where accumulations will be difficult without heavy snowfall rates, which will be difficult to achieve. The system will also be primarily occurring during the day when the ever strengthening sun angle will make it more difficult for snow to accumulate. The system will be rather fast moving and dry air initially will eat at some of the precipitation.
All of that is to say that there is more working against snow accumulations than working for it. A widespread 1-3 inches is likely across much of interior northern New England with limited accumulations near the coast, likely getting mostly washed away. Vermont will struggle the most with snowfall for northern New England as the system will be on its way out by the time the atmosphere saturates and better forcing occurs. Interior eastern Maine will have the chance to see the most as the system will have had the most time to strengthen.
The biggest question will be when and where the secondary low develops. This low will dictate where the rain/snow line stalls as well as how heavy precipitation rates can get. Once the low forms, should it strengthen quickly, heavier rates would be possible, allowing for more snowfall. If this low struggles to get going, snowfall will have a very hard time sticking. A band of moderate snow will be possible just to the north of the rain/snow line.
The primary low associated with this system will move to the north of New England on Tuesday. This will keep the region under broad cyclonic flow and allow for puffy clouds and scattered rain/snow showers to develop in the afternoon. Showers will be most numerous across the north, closer to the low pressure. Downsloping will help southern and central New England see less clouds and more isolated shower activity.
Below: RGEM showing potential weather Tuesday afternoon:
New England will generally remain in a trough for next week, keeping the weather unsettled and cooler. With that said there isn't much support for a widespread storm after Monday for the rest of the work week. There will be waves of energy that bring parts of New England showers throughout the week. Wednesday and Friday seem to bring the best chances for some shower activity after Monday.
The next shot at a widespread storm will come next Sunday into Monday (March 30-31) as a system slides across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes. This system could see a variety of precipitation types across New England, though where exactly everything sets up remains a question (naturally, at this stage).
Below: Current weather map for next Sunday (March 30):
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