On Sunday, an upper-level trough will dig into the Great Lakes region. This will spawn a surface low pressure system which will drive eastward through Ohio and Pennsylvania, lifting a warm front toward New England. The system itself will travel through New England on Monday. This will bring rounds of showers and widespread rainfall to New England Sunday and Monday.
The system's warm front will likely begin to spread showers into New England Sunday morning. After this morning round of showers, more isolated activity will be likely across New England heading into the early afternoon. Forcing for showers will be greatest just to the north of the warm front. Areas south of this front (mainly south of the Mass Pike) will see little by way of showers after the morning round.
How widespread showers are in the morning and early afternoon will be determined by how quickly the more moist air can spread into New England. Dry air and surface high pressure will try to eat away at the showers initially. Showers should continue to fill in through the afternoon and become more widespread by the evening as the dry air gets eroded. Sunday will not be a washout for most. The southern cutoff in steadier rain in the evening will be determined by the location of the warm front.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around midday Sunday (1st image) and Sunday evening (2nd image):
The bulk of the rainfall from this system will move through New England Sunday night into Monday morning as the center of the low pressure system swings through the region. The bulk of the rain at this time will likely be confined to northern New England with southern New England reverting back to more scattered showers. A general drying trend will take place from southwest to northeast across New England starting Monday morning. Areas near the Canadian border and higher elevations may see snow showers or mixing.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather early Monday morning (1st image) and around midday Monday (2nd image):
On Monday, the center of the system will skirt along near the New England coastline. This will sweep a cold front across the region. Drier air will filter back into the region after the cold front passes, though light, scattered showers or drizzle may linger into the afternoon. Light mixing or snow showers will continue for areas near the Canadian border. This will mainly be in higher elevations (2,000+ feet), but lower elevations near the border may see a brief mix as well.
When all is said and done with this system, a widespread 0.25 to 1 inch of rain will likely have fallen across New England. The higher end of the spectrum will be across northern New England with amounts dropping off heading south and west in New England. Rainfall amounts have trended downward for northern New England since yesterday; no more than an inch of rain is expected anywhere in the region. Much of New England remains dry, so this will be beneficial rainfall.
As stated above, much of New England will begin to dry out after Monday. The upper-level low will remain to New England's northeast through at least midweek. This will provide upslope rain and snow showers to the higher terrain. A few isolated showers can't be ruled out across the rest of New England. Expansive high pressure will build to New England's west during this time as well. This upcoming week will likely be similar to last week.
It does look like it will be cooler than last week with widespread frost and freeze potential. Afternoons will be held to the 40s north and 50s south. The high pressure over the west looks to shift more eastward late in the week, which would allow for at least a slight warm-up at the end of next week. Widespread frost and freezes will be possible across New England. Other than that, it'll be yet another quiet, low-impact weather week for the region.
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