After a brief reprieve from widespread 90° temperatures on Saturday, thanks to increased morning clouds (some afternoon breaks of sun will be likely) and showers, higher heat will return beginning on Sunday and last into the middle of next week. Early next week may bring the hottest high temperatures since the mid-June heat wave amid what has already been a hot and humid July thus far.
Saturday afternoon will see a compact system move well north of New England. This could ignite some scattered showers or thunderstorms this afternoon. Coverage will likely be limited, but not everyone will stay completely dry this afternoon. Some brief, heavier downpours will be possible with these showers.
GFS showing the potential for some scattered showers/storms to pop up this afternoon:
On Sunday, temperatures will begin to increase again, with low 90s returning for many areas of central and southern New England. Humidity won't be as oppressive as the previous days as high pressure builds over New England. This will allow for a weak west-northwest flow, which will help lower dew points slightly. Just like how Saturday is a one day break from the heat, Sunday will be a one day break in humidity as it will rebuild back into the upper 60s/low 70s for Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday.
While the weekend will feature one or the other in respect to heat and humidity, Monday through Wednesday will feature both as a strong ridge of high pressure remains planted over the Atlantic Ocean. This will continue to pump a southwesterly flow into the region after the surface high pressure from Sunday moves away. This ridge in the Atlantic has been planted in the general vicinity of Bermuda for a couple weeks and has been responsible for the persistently hot and humid conditions this July.
Map showing pressure and wind direction on Monday (July 15). You can see the large area of high pressure to the east of Bermuda, with a southwesterly flow across the east coast. This high is moving farther away from Bermuda, which will be important later in the week:
This setup may bring back some memories of the mid-June heat wave early next week. The peak of the heat will likely be in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Tuesday may end up being the hottest day of this renewed heat wave due to an increase in thunderstorm coverage (more on that later). Feels-like temperatures will likely back into the triple digits for the typical warm spots of southern and central New England (namely the Connecticut River and Merrimack Valleys) by Tuesday.
This renewed heat wave will be coming during what has already been a July laden with persistent heat waves across New England. Manchester, New Hampshire saw their 8th consecutive 90+° day on Friday. The city will likely come close to 90° today, but may fall just short. After that, it’ll be in the 90s again through Wednesday. Concord has now seen 7 straight. In the past 8 days, Hartford has seen 6 90+° days, with five in a row from July 7th to the 11th. The city fell 1 degree short on July 6th and 2 degrees short yesterday.
With no strong ridge overhead during this time frame, there will be a chance for scattered thunderstorms and showers each afternoon. Higher coverage of storms is likely on Monday and especially Wednesday while Tuesday will be much more limited. These will be your typical summertime hit or miss storms, so not everyone will see an afternoon storm all three days, but storms will likely bubble up around during this time frame. Heavy rainfall will be possible with any storm that develops.
Wednesday will likely see the most numerous storms as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Depending on the timing of the front, there could be strong to severe storms Wednesday afternoon and evening, but being several days out, it's impossible to say what the magnitude of this risk will be at this point.
This cold front will likely clear New England by the end of next week. This front continues to look like it will do what previous cold fronts this month have failed to do: tamp down the heat and humidity. Once the front clears the region, an expansive ridge of high pressure will look to build to the west, allowing a more northwesterly flow with more seasonable temperatures and low humidity.
Weather map for Friday morning, showing New England post-frontal with an expansive high building to the west. This setup would support overall very pleasant weather:
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