New England, along with the entire northeast, has now been entrenched in an extremely active fall fire season. Since the Hawthorne Fire broke out in Connecticut during the evening of October 21st, hundreds of other brush fires have erupted across all six New England states. While New England brush fires are not uncommon, they occur every year, the level and scale of fires has become exceptional given the time of year.
So far, there have been hundreds of brush fires across New England this fall, with a majority of them occurring in Massachusetts and Connecticut. One of several reasons why this fall fire season has been notable is due to the elongated nature of the risk. At least a portion of New England has been under an elevated risk for fires since October 22nd. During the time from the Hawthorne Fire's ignition to today (November 13), there have been 10 days with a Red Flag Warning somewhere in New England, with a lesser elevated risk filling the rest.
With bone dry conditions poised to continue for southern New England, an elevated fire risk will continue through the rest of this week and likely into next week. That will be over four weeks with a nearly continual elevated fire risk. There have been two main drivers to this fire activity: expanding drought conditions and frequent days with gusty winds.
Fall is the windiest time of year for New England as low pressure systems become stronger, the gradient between high and low pressure becomes tighter and more frequent and stronger cold fronts drive through the region. Wind is the main driver of wildfire spread. Normally in the fall, enough precipitation falls to keep brush fires from developing or spreading.
That's the problem with the fall of 2024. A quickly spreading drought after weeks with very little rain has primed the ground for fires. The ground and brush are just about as dry as they can get this time of year. Combine this extremely dry ground with the typical high winds of fall, and the recipe is there for a serious fire season.
New England typically experiences brush fires in the springtime. Typically, the most wildfires in the region occur in April and May every year. According to the Massachusetts Department of Fire Services (DFS), March through May has seen an average of 641 wildfires since 2018. September through November sees an average of 82. September through November of this year has seen around 538 fires, including a 1,200% increase in fires in October alone. The total number of fires will likely continue to rise as November goes on. November has seen over 260 fires in the first half of the month.
Below: Monthly average number of fires versus 2024's numbers (this was released on November 1st, so the 200+ fires that have occurred this month are not shown):
All of those numbers are just for Massachusetts. Connecticut has seen around 150 fires from October 21st through the first week in November. A large handful of fires have occurred across Rhode Island, Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine over the past few weeks as well. There have been plenty more fires across the entire northeast, with a large amount of activity in New York and New Jersey as well. A massive fire in New Jersey has burned around 5,000 acres. Portions of New Jersey have seen their driest month on record.
New England wildfires typically remain on the smaller end, a few acres or less and many of the fires this fall season have been on that small end. With that said, there have been several large fires that have burned well over 100 acres. These include fires in Berlin, CT; Middleton, MA; Salem, MA and Lynn, MA. The largest fire of the season (so far) has been in the Lynn Woods in Lynn, MA. This fire has burned over 400 acres and is the largest in this popular conservation area in over 30 years.
These fires have become more concerning as of late. For the first few weeks of this fire season, there were limited injuries and property damage overall (a firefighter was tragically killed in the first days of the Hawthorne Fire). Over the past week, homes have been damaged in North Andover and Monson, MA. The North Andover fire forced a hasty evacuation of three homes.
An apartment complex in Norwich, CT was damaged by a nearby brush fire. Another fire in Saugus, MA burned dangerously close to an apartment building. A farm in Orange, CT was damaged. Earlier this fall, a train trestle in Monson was heavily damaged. In New Jersey, the Jennings Creek fire has threatened multiple structures and has led to the death of a park ranger. Concerns continue to grow for a potentially destructive fire to erupt.
Photos: Home damaged by brush fire in Monson, MA (WWLP); fire in the Lynn Woods (NECN)
Unfortunately, this unprecedented fall wildfire season will continue for at least another week as very little rain is in the picture. A cutoff low to the east of New England will likely keep a bulk of its rain offshore. Some showers are likely to pinwheel around the storm, but not nearly enough to dent this threat. More passing showers will likely come on Monday, but, again, not amounting to much of anything.
Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation outlook:
Looking further ahead, the remnants of a developing tropical cyclone near Florida will need to be watched for New England later next week. If the timing is right between this system and a system moving across the Plains, New England could see a soaking rain from tropical moisture. As of now, any scenario is possible with this system, including the remnants getting shunted to the south as has been the case with previous cyclones this season. Normally, we wouldn't even bother bringing this up yet, but it's worth throwing out there for now.
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