New England's taste of early summer that I first wrote about on Friday remains on track. There were a couple of wild card factors that could have derailed this warm-up (a frontal boundary and/or backdoor cold front to be specific), but those factors look to keep at bay, at least long enough to allow the warm temperatures. High temperatures could approach records in places of southern New England.
Last week, I wrote that some places could see temperatures potentially push past 80 in places. 80s at the end of the week are now looking widespread in southern and even central New England. Areas of Connecticut could push toward 90. Multiple weather models are now showing at least a 90% chance of widespread 80s. This is where daily record highs are likely to be broken.
Naturally, highs in northern New England won't be quite as high. Still, the afternoon at the end of the week will likely surge into the low to mid 70s in many places. Even New England's ice box of Caribou, Maine will make it to the mid 50s, which is a good 10 degrees above average.
This excessive warmth is being set up by a deep ridge of high pressure that will be pushing eastward throughout the week. This high pressure ridge will settle just to the south of New England, likely in the mid-Atlantic. This combines with a northward bulge in the jet stream. The real heat will begin on Thursday with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s in most of the region. The peak of this warmth will likely be on Friday, when the entire region will be in the 70s and 80s and maybe pushing near 90 in Connecticut.
Being mid-April, there is a big caveat with this warmth. The coast will be noticeably, if not much cooler than the rest of New England. This is especially true in northern New England, with a chilly breeze coming off the Gulf of Maine, and Cape Cod, which is obviously surrounded by water. This sea breeze could cause temperatures to drop on both Thursday and Friday afternoons.
There will be warmth across New England all week, with above average temperatures and below average precipitation for most of New England. The true summer-like warmth will be contained to Thursday and Friday.
In the beginning, I mentioned that the wild card factors would hold off long enough for warmth to build. However, a backdoor cold front is looking to bring an end to the warmth on Saturday for spots. This front will sweep across northern and eastern New England, dropping temperatures 10-15 degrees on Saturday. This front is also what will keep northern Maine from breaking past the 50s on Friday. All of New England will likely return closer to normal temperatures by the end of the weekend.