A potent storm system will be coming to New England late this weekend into early next week. This storm will be a multi-hazard one, with heavy rain, strong winds and an increasing threat for snow across the higher terrain of northern New England. Being a few days out, shifts can still happen, especially with the storm's track, but here are the current trends, this is not locked in yet:
An area of low pressure will track to New England's north Sunday into Sunday night. As it does so, it will drag a strong cold front across the region. A secondary low will likely form along the front and strengthen as it moves through New England. The low's central pressure is being shown dropping from around the 1,000mb range over the Mid-Atlantic to around the 980mb range when it gets into northern Maine.
TIMING
The storm has sped up a bit in regards to arrival time. Initial showers will likely break out across Vermont and western Massachusetts by Sunday late-morning to midday. Scattered showers will likely begin further east by early afternoon, however, a steady rain will not be happening yet. The first half of Sunday is still looking to be dry across most of New England.
Potential weather Sunday early afternoon:
By Sunday evening, scattered rain showers will likely have overspread the entirety of New England. Winds will also begin to gradually increase at this time, though they will not be anything of note quite yet. The rain and wind will continue to pick up in intensity as Sunday night goes on. The storm will likely peak early Monday morning for much of New England.
Potential weather Sunday evening (1st image) and overnight (2nd image):
By about daybreak Monday, the shield of heaviest rain will be shifting eastward. How quickly this shield of rain will move eastward remains a bit of an uncertainty, but it will likely be moving into Maine by Monday morning. Also, colder air on the backside of the storm will likely transition rain to snow across Vermont and into the White Mountains. Exactly how quickly this transition occurs needs to be hammered down as that will heavily impact snow totals.
Potential weather Monday morning:
There remains uncertainty over exactly how quickly the storm shuts down on Monday. The Euro continues to show the storm mostly clearing out in the morning while other models have precipitation lasting through much of Monday.
RAIN
This storm will likely feature a shield of heavy rain moving across New England overnight Sunday to Monday. It continues to look like the highest rain totals will be across western New England with lesser amounts to the east, especially along coastal areas. A widespread 1-2 inches of rain will be possible across all of New England, with locally amounts to 3 inches not out of the question.
Now, when it comes to these kinds of storms, more wind and a stronger surface low may lead to overall less rain. With that said, rainfall amounts have trended up over the past couples days. With mixed signals on just how much rain to expect, we're sticking with the NBM forecast (shown below) rather than make our own forecast map for this update.
Notable flooding is not expected, however, some issues could arise in poor drainage areas. There is currently a low chance for some rivers to reach minor flood stage. The Weather Prediction Center has all of New England in the "marginal" category for excessive rainfall.
WIND
The one piece of this storm that has been well known for a little while is the chance for strong winds. Winds aloft will be very strong, with 80-90mph winds likely around 5,000 feet above sea level across eastern New England. The question remains just how much of that wind will make it to the surface.
With winds that strong aloft, there will likely be widespread gusts of 40mph across much of New England. Gusts of 50-60mph will be possible across the coastline. The strongest of the gusts will likely occur along Cape Cod & the islands and Maine's midcoast and downeast areas. The exact track of the secondary low will help who gets the highest winds in New Hampshire and Maine.
Scattered tree damage and power outages will be possible across coastal areas, especially in southeast Massachusetts and across central and eastern Maine.
SNOW
The one part of this storm that has increased over the past day or so is the potential for accumulating snow across the Green and White Mountains. There remains uncertainty in how much to expect. The exact track of the secondary low will play a big role in snowfall. A track further east would produce more snow while a westward trend would reduce snowfall. No snow is currently expected outside of Vermont and the White Mountains.
The time it takes for rain to transition to snow will also be important in figuring out snow totals. Rain will likely turn to snow by early Monday morning in Vermont. Snowfall will likely be highly elevation dependent. There will be a chance for several inches of wet, heavy snow across the higher terrain of Vermont and possibly into the White Mountains.
Here's a look at what could fall at elevation in Vermont. This is nowhere near being locked in, this is just the potential:
COASTAL FLOODING
The coastline will likely get thrashed by large waves. Coastal erosion and minor coastal flooding will be possible across New England's south coast and Maine's midcoast and downeast areas. Max surge will come to Maine after high tide, so coastal flooding is not anticipated there, but pounding surf may lead to erosion.
FALLING TEMPS
Once the cold front passes, winds will diminish and temperatures will drop significantly, although with temperatures so far above average during the storm, a significant drop really means a return to more seasonable weather for December.
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