There's basically no change in the overall setup for New England's weather today. Frontal boundaries remain in control with one stalled to the north and south of New England. The southern boundary will see a wave of low pressure ride along it, keeping a majority of the heavier, more widespread rain to the south of New England over the Atlantic.
Overall, today has trended drier for most of New England. Despite a moisture-rich atmosphere, weak forcing across New England will likely keep rainfall totals at a quarter inch or less through Thursday. With that said, some thunderstorms are possible across western New England this evening, which could push rainfall totals higher in localized areas. Pop-up showers could occur anywhere in New England today, but dry times will be much more common than wet times.
HRRR showing potential weather this afternoon:
An easterly flow will dominate the day, leading to cooler conditions, especially for eastern New England. Highs today will only reach the low 70s across the coastal plain. It will be slightly warmer further inland, but still below average for the time of year. The areas with the best chance at reaching 80° will be the Champlain Valley and Connecticut River Valley. The easterly flow will also help keep a thick cloud cover locked in with more limited chances for breaks like there were yesterday.
Heading into this evening, the main trough over the Great Lakes will begin to lift northeastward. This will allow thunderstorms to develop ahead of an associated cold front this afternoon across New York. These storms will likely push into Vermont and western Massachusetts heading into the evening hours. Strong to severe storms are possible across New York, but they will be weakening as they cross into New England due to decreased instability and a later arrival time.
HRRR showing potential weather this evening:
Thursday will see the system's cold front cross New England. What was once looking like a potentially impactful weather day is now looking very limited in the thunderstorm department. While the cold front will cross a large portion of New England in the afternoon and evening (which would often signal the potential for at least scattered severe storms), it looks like clouds will stick around for much of New England (not completely overcast all day, though), which will greatly limit instability for the eastern two thirds of New England.
Western New England will stand the best chance of seeing more sun before the front's arrival, but the cold front will cross western areas before peak daytime heating, limiting severe storm potential. With that said, a couple stronger storms can't be completely ruled out as moisture, lift and shear will still be present, especially if some cloud clearing can occur earlier than anticipated.
NAM showing potential cloud cover heading into Thursday afternoon:
The greatest chance for storms will be across the White Mountains and into interior Maine on Thursday, closer to the actual center of the low pressure system traversing north of the region. Showers and rumbles of thunder will be possible anywhere in New England (same as Tuesday and Wednesday), but coverage looks to be much more limited across southern and central New England.
GFS showing potential weather around mid-afternoon Thursday:
The cold front, along with building high pressure over the region, will set up a weekend very similar to last weekend with warm temperatures, mainly sunny skies and low humidity. Early next week will likely see both heat and humidity build, with full summer conditions returning. Widespread upper 80s to 90s along with higher humidity will be likely for much of next week as ridging over the east pumps a southerly flow up the coast. After Thursday, the next widespread precipitation chance may not come until the middle of next week.
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