One last area of low pressure riding the base of the trough New England has arrived and will bring southern New England a bit of a soaking. This weak system will interact with a cold front, providing the focus for showers and storms this afternoon and evening, mainly in southern New England.
Heading through Thursday, the low pressure system moves through Cape Cod and slows down along with the cold front. This system will bring a more widespread rain to southern and central New England through Thursday morning. The steadiest rain will occur closer to the center of the low, which will be over southeastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. High moisture will allow for locally heavy downpours at times Thursday morning. Scattered showers will continue through much of the day.
HRRR showing potential weather Thursday afternoon:
The highest rain totals will naturally come to the areas expected to see the downpours. A half inch to an inch of rain is likely south of the Mass Pike with amounts dropping as you head north and rainfall gradually becomes lighter and more scattered in nature. Going into northern New England, drier air behind the cold front will eat away at the precipitation. The exact track of the system will determine just how far north measurable rain is able to get. The steadiest of the rain will be in the morning, but showers may linger for much of the day.
Heading into Friday, a pattern change begins to develop for New England. The region has been entrenched in a trough for much of this past week, bringing persistent broad cyclonic flow and unsettled weather. This trough lingers over us Thursday, aiding in bringing us the coolest temperatures of the week. Thursday night will be a very cool night with lows mainly in the 40s with some upper 30s in far northern New England. Friday will act as the transition day.
Heading into the weekend, the trough will begin to shift eastward and weaken. This will allow for the flow to become less amplified (more zonal), meaning the jet stream begins to flatten out. This will allow more mild air to filter into New England from the west. From Friday through the beginning of next week, temperatures are looking to tick upward with each day.
This will be aided by a surface high pressure that will be situated across the eastern United States. With high pressure situated near New England, it will allow the warmer temperatures without a major increase in humidity. While dew points will be ticking upward, they are looking to remain below full summer levels through at least early next week. High pressure also means drier weather.
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