A coastal storm will pass well south of New England Tuesday night through Wednesday. While this storm will be too far away to bring any widespread precipitation to New England, it will help generate some ocean-enhanced snow showers across the coast, particularly the Massachusetts south shore and Bristol county. The system will also keep a mainly cloudy sky around for most of New England Wednesday.
This system will shift winds to a northeast direction, allowing the cold wind to ride over the relatively warm ocean and over land. With a disturbance nearby, this will allow for light snow showers to begin to develop along the Massachusetts coastline after midnight. Some flurries may be able to push through Essex, Middlesex, Suffolk and Norfolk counties as well as New Hampshire's seacoast region, but these areas will not see any accumulation.
Expected weather at dawn:
The snow showers will likely sink southward early Wednesday morning and settle over the south shore and Bristol county by sunrise. These snow showers will likely continue to be pumped across southeastern Massachusetts, minus Cape Cod (who will be more likely to see rain showers) and Rhode Island through much of Wednesday morning.
Expected weather Wednesday mid-morning:
Areas that stand the best chance at seeing a bit of accumulation will be Plymouth and Bristol counties as well as Cape Ann. These areas could see up to an inch of snow, with localized spots that get into steadier snow seeing up to two inches. These snow showers will begin to wind down in the afternoon, though scattered flurries will likely persist.
After this disturbance, eyes turn toward New England's next chance for a widespread storm system late this weekend. This storm system will likely feature a strengthening low pressure system tracking to the north of New England with a strong cold front being dragged across New England.
There will be a surge of warm air ahead of the system (temperatures will likely shoot into the 40s and 50s across New England this weekend, and with the current expected track, this will very likely be a rain-event for New England. A period of heavy rain will be possible, with an inch or more possible in places.
Another hazard with this system will be the potential for impactful winds. Just how strong wind gusts are able to get remains to be seen this far out, but gusty winds will be likely across eastern New England.
As for timing, models are decent agreement about the system coming through Sunday night into Monday morning. The weekend is largely looking dry and mild. Models also agree that the storm will be progressive and quickly move through New England. Being about 6 days out, there's still plenty to be worked out in regards to track, timing and impacts. As always, we'll be watching the trends all week.
What the Euro, CMC, GFS and GraphCast are currently showing for Sunday night:
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