Observed Snowfall from Storms Versus New England Storm Center's Forecasts This Winter, Part 2

One of the biggest points of emphasis here at New England Storm Center when it comes to forecasting is transparency. With that said, we're coming to the end of the cold months (despite the mixing/snow coming through this weekend), so we're taking a look back at our snowfall forecasts and seeing how they panned out against what actually fell. We did this back in January covering the first half of the season. That article covered storms from November 28-January 20 and can be seen here.

The following are storms we've issued snowfall forecast maps for this season from late January onward along with some notes on what we got right and wrong:

APRIL 8-9, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This spring storm behaved much like a spring storm. That is to say it was highly elevation-based. The Greens and Whites slightly over-performed with the jackpot zone setting up over the Maine highlands.

MARCH 29-30, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

The snow band associated with this storm set up about where it was expected. This band stretched all the way from northern New York through Maine's Midcoast. The highest snowfall was expected in the middle of this area, however, the banding held together through New England, which led to some instances of over-performance in the valleys of northwest Vermont and near Maine's Midcoast. The highest totals were expected over northern Vermont, and that is where the jackpot zone set up.

MARCH 24, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This storm played out nearly as expected. It was able to slightly over-perform with its band of snow just north of the rain/snow line. A widespread 4-8" of snow has fallen in a band from central New Hampshire through Maine just inland from the coastal plain rather than 3-5". This band just north of the rain/snow line also set up a bit closer to the coast than expected across Maine.

MARCH 7, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This was an interesting storm for eastern Maine that wasn't really expected. This system initially brought all of New England a soaking rain in the days before March 7th. As the storm pulled away, it rapidly intensified and bands of heavy snow rotated around the backside into Maine. Guidance began to show rather dramatic westward shifts with snow bands in the 24 hours leading up to this event.

On the evening of March 6th, only Aroostook County was under a winter weather advisory for a few inches of snow. On the morning of March 7th, southern Aroostook and northern Penobscot County were placed under winter storm warnings. We issued our first (and only) snowfall map on the evening of the 6th. With that said, the final numbers matched up very close to our map.

FEBRUARY 26-27, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

A few weak, low-impact systems swiped New England at the end of February and start of March. This one panned out exactly as expected with a band of 3-6 inches setting up across interior New Hampshire and Maine with lesser amounts to the north and south of it. This came as a rain/snow line gradually worked northward throughout the event.

FEBRUARY 20, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This event came to New England as two pieces. A northern stream low pressure passed to New England's north while a southern stream system passed well offshore. The southern stream system seemed poised to brush Cape Cod and the Islands with a few inches of snow.

The offshore system stayed just a bit too far offshore and less than an inch of snow was reported across Cape Cod. Meanwhile, the northern stream system managed to squeeze out a few inches over northern Vermont. The two ranges on our map should have been reversed (a 3-5 inch zone over Vermont and an 'up to 1' inch zone over Cape Cod).

FEBRUARY 15-17, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

We expected a widespread 6-12 inches of snow from what was the largest and most widespread storm this winter for much of New England. This did end up playing out with a majority of the region north of the Mass Pike seeing at least 6 inches. The jackpot zone ended up over the Green Mountains rather than northern Maine, however. Trends heading into this storm pointed toward a stronger primary low and more warm air intruding into the storm. This gave us reservations about bumping up snowfall. In our "Impacts, Timing" article for this storm, we wrote:

"Some guidance does push for a wider 8-12" zone extending farther south, but with general trends pointing toward a stronger primary low with a stronger push of milder air and mixing pushing farther north, we're hesitant to extend this zone. We're thinking that the high end of the 5-8" zone will suffice to cover this potential rather than going for a low end 8-12" zone."

FEBRUARY 12-13, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This storm played out exactly as expected. A widespread 1-4 inches of snow fell. The clear jackpot zone was northern Maine, where an expected 8-12 inches ended up coming down amid storm strengthening and frontogenesis as it moved away from New England.

FEBRUARY 8-9, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

A widespread 5-8 inches of snow fell across northern New England with 3-6 inches across southern New England with this one. The zone of highest snowfall ended up farther north than anticipated as a dry slot ate away at the snowfall farther south. One of the biggest uncertainties we talked about in our forecasts for this storm was the potential of a dry slot reducing totals across southernmost New England. In our "impacts, timing" article for this storm, we wrote:

"By the pre-dawn hours, a dry slot may work into southernmost New England, reducing snow rates...Drier air is expected to move into the snow growth zone in the early morning hours. This is what happened this past Thursday, which led to amounts coming in on the lower end of the ranges for the most part. This has the best potential to impact totals south of the Mass Pike, but the northern extent remains a bit of a question. Should this slot move in quickly, it will have an impact on final totals, especially for Connecticut and Rhode Island."

In our evening update on February 7th, we wrote: "A bigger [factor working against snowfall] may be the potential for a dry slot to work into the region shortly after the heaviest round of snow early Sunday morning...Should it move in quickly Sunday morning, it could reduce snow totals as snowfall rates and snow ratios will be reduced with it."

FEBRUARY 6, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This storm landed just about as expected. Some areas did have trouble "piling up" the snow as it was very cold during the storm. The snow type was more icy in nature, which takes away the "fluff factor". Flakes were more of the "plate" and "prism" type on the chart below, which has a lower snow ratio than other types of snowflakes that would lead to a fluffier snow, despite the snow itself still being very light.

JANUARY 31-FEBRUARY 1, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This was a weaker, quick-moving system that shot through New England over the course of about 10-12 hours. The system produced a wintry mix and rain across southern New England with a wide band of snow across northern New England. The storm's jackpot zone over-performed with a widespread 3-5 inches rather than 1-3 inches. We were hesitant to take the higher totals among guidance due to its lack of amplification and weak nature. In our forecast, we wrote:

"The storm will not be very amplified, so the primary motion will be west to east rather than south to north. This will create a sharp northern cutoff in snowfall for the northern tier of the region, with little, if anything, falling across northernmost Vermont, New Hampshire and especially northern and possibly even central Maine."

The area of highest snowfall occurred as expected. The very sharp northern and southern cutoffs also occurred as expected.

JANUARY 28-29, 2025

Below: Our final forecast map before the event (1st image) and the actual snowfall observed (2nd image):

This storm played out pretty much exactly as expected. An Alberta clipper zipped through New England, bringing an expected 1-4 inches of snow across a wide swath of New England. The Green Mountains and Berkshires picked up a general 3-6 inches. A trailing cold front brought scattered snow squalls in the afternoon, with thundersnow and 4" an hour snowfall rates across western Massachusetts, which helped boost numbers in northwest Massachusetts.

The first half of the 2024-2025 season can be seen here.