As a storm passes to New England's south early this weekend, another storm will enter the west and move across the country. This storm looks to exit the east coast near the Carolinas. The storm then moves up the coast and may strengthen rapidly, blowing up into a powerful nor'easter as it arrives in New England. There is much uncertainty this far out, especially with the track, but here's a look at what the models are trending toward.
The track of the storm is basically the key to everything. While other factors are in play with this storm, the track will be the deciding factor in what happens to New England early next week. The Euro model has been pretty consistent now over the last couple days keeping the track closer to the coast.
SNOW
There is a massive spread in the models with where the storm will track, and the track will ultimately determine who gets into heavy snow and who sees no snow at all. As of now, it looks like the storm will track west of the benchmark, which would lead to much lower snowfall amounts across eastern New England, while north and west New England see more snow.
We discussed the benchmark earlier this week, basically it's a point in the Atlantic where if a storm passes over it, most of New England gets hammered by heavy snow. If the storm passes west of the mark (closer to the coast), like this one is currently forecast, it brings warmer air and rain/mix to southern and coastal New England.
Right now, it looks like the highest snowfall will occur in a zone that stretches from the Berkshires, through the Green Mountains, into central and northern New Hampshire and much of Maine. A slight shift in the track could pull this zone further south, so this is very far from being locked in.
There are multiple factors working for snowfall and several factors working against snowfall, so we'll have to wait and see to figure out how much snow, but there is potential for some area in New England to see a pretty good haul of snow.
Here's a look at what the Euro model is trending toward today. The model shows moderate snowfall north and west with a lot of rain and/or mixing to the east. Notice precipitation hangs around through Wednesday as the low does a bit of a loop.
RAIN/MIX
With the current forecast track trend, heavy bands of windswept rain would lash much of southern New England, particularly eastern areas. Areas that see mainly rain from this storm could easily see an inch of rain.
The area that is currently looking to see intense rainfall rates is eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island. These areas are currently looking at nearly an all rain event, with little mixing and snow.
There could be a wide area of a rain/snow mix across New England. The storm looks to hang around for a while, potentially up to 2 days. With a storm lasting this long, it complicates the forecast as there could be times of rain one day, times of snow one night and mixing the next. How much of the time will be rain, how much will mix and how much will snow remain to be seen.
WIND
Regardless of the precipitation type, there will very likely be strong winds. As the storm strengthens rapidly, the winds will ramp up big time. Much of eastern and coastal New England could see very strong winds. Eastern Massachusetts and Rhode Island have the possibility of damaging winds. The strength and track of the storm will determine wind strength, so the wind threat may increase or decrease as time goes on, it will be something to keep a close eye on.
TIMING
As stated before, this has the potential to be a longer duration event, with precipitation lasting two days. As of now, it looks like the storm will ramp up Monday night with the bulk of the storm coming Tuesday. Light precipitation could hang around into Tuesday night and even Wednesday morning.
CURRENT CHANCES
Snowstorm for areas of northern New England: 55%
Snowstorm for southern and coastal New England: 25%
Rainstorm/mixing for areas of northern New England: 40%
Rainstorm/mixing for southern and coastal New England: 60%
As you can see by my percentages, confidence is not all that high yet, so stay tuned to New England Storm Center for further updates as this storm progresses.
Commenti