New England's unsettled weather rolls right along. After a one day break from rain, a cold front will push through the region Tuesday. This front will touch off a line of thunderstorms in the afternoon through the evening. The storms will be moving through a moisture-rich environment. This will allow the storms to produce torrential rainfall. 1 to 2 inch an hour rates will be possible. This, combined with the fact that the ground is already so over-saturated, has prompted a flood watch for northern and western areas. It won't take too much more rain to renew problems.
It needs to be emphasized that the storms will be scattered in nature. There will not be large, widespread storms like this past Sunday, and not everyone will see a storm, they will generally be hit or miss for most of the region. The greatest chance of storms will be north and west. The line will likely begin to thin out as it makes its way south and east.
The main threat will be heavy rain, with some areas looking to pick up a quick one to two inches. The storms will be localized, so most areas will see much less rain than that. Any area that does see torrential rain will run the risk of flash flooding. The areas where this is most likely to occur are included in the flood watches shown above.
While a severe weather outbreak is extremely unlikely, a few storms may go rogue and become strong to severe. The biggest threat in these storms will be damaging wind gusts. With the saturated ground, it will not take as high of winds to blow some trees down. Hail will also be a threat.
Before the afternoon line of storms, a round of rain will be possible across northern Vermont and New Hampshire. For the rest of the region, the day will be partly cloudy to mostly sunny before the storms arrive. The storm line will move through the region during the afternoon with northern and western areas seeing the first storms in the early to mid afternoon. The storms will begin to thin out as they push into southern and eastern areas
HRRR showing multiple lines of storms moving northeast late in the afternoon:
Wildfire smoke, which returned to New England yesterday, will hang around Tuesday. Air quality will be reduced for much of the region. The good news about the cold front and storms is that they will push the smoke out of the region.
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