This weekend will feature plenty of dry weather and seasonable temperatures with a decent amount of scattered thunderstorms mixed in. Some areas will have the chance to see strong to severe storms as well. Here's the breakdown.
SATURDAY
An area of low pressure will pass to New England's north. This will drag a warm front northward through the region ahead of a cold front later in the day. Humidity will be on the rise as the warm front pulls moisture northward back into New England. This will set the stage for thunderstorm development later in the day and into the overnight hours for eastern areas.
The bulk of the storms and precipitation will fire up ahead of the cold front, which will take its time getting across New England. This means much of the day will be dry and nice for New England. Prior to storms breaking out, the day will be partly cloudy with very average temperatures.
Storms will likely begin breaking out in the mid to late afternoon across Vermont, western Massachusetts and western Connecticut. There are hints of some showers breaking out in Vermont in the early afternoon, before the main line's arrival. Storms in these areas will have the best chance to become strong to severe. All severe weather hazards are possible, with damaging wind gusts and large hail the biggest threats. As with other recent severe events, a quick spin-up tornado is also possible.
The line of storms will continue to push eastward throughout the evening and into the overnight hours. The line likely won't push past the Connecticut River until the evening. Areas east of the New Hampshire-Vermont border will have a mainly dry day for Saturday. I write "mainly" only because there's always a chance of a couple storms erupting ahead of the main line, but a majority of eastern New England will be dry for all of the daylight hours.
High-resolution guidance showing approximate storm location around sunset:
This timing is a big reason why strong storms will be limited further east. The line will come through overnight, after sunset. This will cause storms to fizzle out as they push eastward. The further east you are, the less potent storms will be. By the time the line makes it to Boston and Maine, it may just be showers and downpours instead of actual thunderstorms.
SUNDAY
Scattered showers and storms will linger behind the main line throughout the night and into Sunday morning. These storms will begin to clear out of areas in the late morning to early afternoon. Another round of Scattered showers and storms will be possible throughout Sunday for much of the region. It will NOT be raining all day Sunday, just storms scattered around the area.
Sunday, outside of the pop up storms, will likely feature plenty of clouds, but not totally overcast all day. Highs will again be very mid-August like with a lot of low to mid 80s. It will be humid, with dew points hanging around the mid 60s to low 70s. This will help trigger some storms to erupt. Severe storms are not expected at this time.
Euro model showing scattered storms around Sunday afternoon. Don't take all that green and yellow as an all day rain (this may be overdoing storm coverage just a bit):
BEYOND
Heading into next week, another disturbance may bring thunderstorms back to New England in the Monday night to Tuesday time frame. A severe weather threat could be on the table for southern New England, but this will depend on how timing shakes out. After this disturbance, the week is looking mostly quiet. Temperatures are looking to be very average next week. Overall, it's looking like a very nice week ahead for many in the region.
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