In our forecast post at the beginning of this week, we wrote that a storm system would move to New England's south at the end of this week. This system is coming, and it's now looking more likely that southern New England will get into the rain associated with it.
FRIDAY
This upcoming storm will be much like the last one, with the heaviest rain (and most hours with rain falling) occurring in southern areas with the rain gradually diminishing as you head north in New England. The northern tier of New England will remain dry with breaks in the clouds. The rest of New England will at least see plenty of clouds on Friday.
There is disagreement about exactly how far north (and east) the steadier rain will push on Friday during the day. With the system approaching from the west, western Connecticut and western Massachusetts will likely see the most rain Friday. These areas could see a half inch to an inch of rain.
By Friday night, a disturbance that is over the Great Lakes will combine forces with the disturbance to New England's south. This will allow strengthening of the storm off New England's south coast. This will, in turn, keep the rain going overnight Friday into Saturday morning for southern New England.
SATURDAY
The best chance for rain Saturday will remain across southern areas, especially southeastern Massachusetts. With the system sliding eastward during the day, southwestern New England will see the highest rain chances in the morning with lighter showers for the afternoon. Northern New England will once again remain dry (and brighter) on Saturday as a new high pressure drops into the region from the north.
As for total rainfall amounts, it will depend on exactly where the low pressure system tracks. The further north it tracks, the better the chance for heavy downpours to get into southern New England, bringing rainfall amounts up. Right now, it looks like an inch to inch and a half of rain will be possible across areas south of the Mass Pike. As of now, it appears the heaviest rain chances will be centered to our southwest, near New York City.
Temperature-wise, it will be another cool, raw feeling Saturday for southern New England, with highs mainly in the low 60s thanks to the clouds and showers. Northern areas that remain dry and get some sun will likely climb into the low 70s.
SUNDAY
By Sunday, high pressure builds back into the region, bringing dry and sunny weather back to all of New England. After a cool end to September, the start of October will be seeing warmth return to the region. Sunday will mark the beginning of this warm-up. Sunday will feature temperatures in the 70s region-wide, with mid to upper 70s possible in southern New England.
BEYOND
Looking beyond this weekend, the main story is looking to be an increase in temperatures. Models have backed off the temperatures on Monday, with low to mid 70s looking likely. This increase in temperature is currently looking to peak on Tuesday to Wednesday. Highs may run upwards of 10 degrees above average.
Temperature anomaly map. This shows how far above (or below) temperatures are likely to be relative to average. This is for Tuesday afternoon, showing temperatures running 8-12 degrees above average for all of New England:
This would support highs in the upper 70s toward 80 in southern New England and the mid to upper 70s in northern New England. Exactly how warm it gets will remain to be seen, however, we can expect highs to be well into the 70s at least. At this point, notable heat is unlikely. Temperatures are NOT looking to go rogue and shoot well into the 80s toward 90, like what happened in the middle of April when Hartford hit 96°.
New England's generally dry pattern is looking to continue into next week. Other than the increase in temperatures, there's not much else to note about next week's weather at this time.
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