After some chill to start the week, weather headlines will be all about building warmth across New England for the remainder of the week.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
The beginning of this week will act as a transition day from cooler, unsettled weather to drier, warmer weather. A trough of low pressure will continue its exit from the region today. At the same time, a ridge of high pressure will be building into New England from the southwest. With the incoming high pressure, clouds and winds will be decreasing on Monday and high temperatures will be very normal for late-October across the region.
Monday night will be the coolest night of the week by far, and for some, it will be the coldest night of the season thus far. With high pressure directly overhead, it will lead to very calm conditions overnight, which will allow for some strong cooling. Some areas may experience their first frost or freeze tonight.
The only issue that may prevent temperatures from dropping as low as they can go tonight will be some expected cloud development overnight. Clouds limit the amount of cooling that can happen, and if these clouds show up soon enough, they can prevent a frost/freeze.
Tuesday will be dry and quiet with temperatures once again warming to near seasonable levels after the chilly start. A ridge in the jet stream will begin to build into New England on Tuesday, which will allow very warm weather to enter New England for the rest of the week.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
For the remainder of the week, the main weather story for New England will be the building heat. The weather will take on a classic trough-in-the-west, ridge-in-the-east pattern. This will lead to dry, (mostly) calm and warm weather. High pressure, along with a flow from the southwest, will allow temperatures to climb right up.
For southern and central New England, conditions will be dry and quiet with highs generally in the 60s on Wednesday. A system will pass to the north of New England mid-week. This will lead to mostly cloudy to overcast skies in northern Vermont, northern New Hampshire and northern Maine. Precipitation from the system should be limited to some scattered showers in far northern Maine, however.
Thursday and Friday are looking to be the warmest days of the week, with highs likely to push up to 15° above average. This would support temperatures potentially heading well into the 70s in most of southern and central New England with mid to upper 60s in northern areas. More clouds across the northern third of New England will be the main factor limiting higher temperatures there.
This is a temperature anomaly map. It shows how much warmer or cooler temperatures are likely to be relative to average. This one is for Thursday afternoon, showing temperatures across New England well above average:
There will be another chance for a disturbance to move through the northern third of New England on Friday. Like the mid-week system, this will likely produce more clouds in this area than the rest of New England with a chance for some scattered showers, with the highest chance for precipitation the further north you go and the higher you go in elevation.
WEEKEND
Saturday is currently looking to hold onto the warmer temperatures. Depending on just how everything sets up in regards to timing, Saturday could end up being the warmest day. Saturday does appear to be the end of the warmth as a cold front is looking to drop into the region.
Weather map for Saturday, showing the cold front on New England's doorstep:
Timing of this front will determine just how warm Saturday can get, especially for northern New England, who will see the cold front first. No matter the timing of the front, Sunday is looking to be much cooler, although, in this case, much cooler may mean just dropping back to near average. Again, nailing down the timing of the cold front will be crucial in determining this weekend's weather.
Euro model temperature forecast for Saturday afternoon (1st picture) and Sunday afternoon (2nd picture):
BEYOND
After this week, there continues to be signals for a decent cool down to start off November, with some chilly temperatures possible.
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