This week will be a quiet week across New England, with some light snow showers around in places. The week will also see a distinct warming trend as we head toward the weekend. Here's the details:
MONDAY & TUESDAY
The overall setup for New England changes very little during this time. A large cutoff low continues to swirl well east of New England. This keeps New England under cyclonic flow, but the system is too far east to produce much by way of precipitation for New England. Monday and Tuesday will remain seasonable with mostly sunny skies in most areas. The exception to the sun will be the Massachusetts South Shore and eastern Maine, where the low pressure to the east will cycle in some clouds.
Monday will remain breezy as the gradient between low pressure to the east and high pressure to the north and west remains put. This breeze will again be chilly and is the main factor in limiting temperatures from shooting above average. This setup keeps a persistent northerly flow into New England. The breeze will begin to slacken Tuesday as the gradient gradually eases.
While New England will see very dry air during this time, the general cyclonic flow may result in some scattered light snow showers over eastern Maine on Monday. Overnight Monday into Tuesday, some ocean-effect snow showers will likely erupt across Plymouth County and Cape Cod. With such dry air in place, these showers will be light and scattered, and accumulations shouldn't exceed an inch.
Expected weather overnight Tuesday to Wednesday:
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY
The cutoff low that has been swirling around Nova Scotia will finally begin to exit by the middle of the week. High pressure will begin to build into New England as a ridge that has been over the central United States will begin to slide eastward as it breaks down. This will lead to a warming trend through the end of the week.
Wednesday will remain seasonable with mainly 30s around. By Thursday, most of New England will make it to the 40s (except for the typically colder eastern and northern Maine) with areas of southern New England getting into the mid 40s and potentially making a run toward 50°. The days will be dry with partly cloudy skies. Cloud cover will be variable across New England during this time frame.
WEEKEND
By Friday evening into the overnight hours, a low pressure system will approach New England. This system will pass to New England's north, dragging a warm front across New England. Scattered rain showers will break out along this front.
There will not be much moisture in the atmosphere at all for this system to work with, so showers will likely remain light and scattered through Saturday with total rainfall amounting to no more than a quarter of an inch. This system could bring some wet snowflakes or a rain/snow mix to the higher elevations of northern New England at the onset.
Temperatures will likely remain above average through the weekend as New England sits in the warm sector of the system. Saturday currently stands to be the warmest day of the week, where widespread 40s north and 50s south will be possible. Sunday is currently looking only slightly cooler and breezy.
BEYOND
A drop back to more seasonable weather is expected after the weekend with early indications of a cold front crossing New England on Monday (February 12). This could ignite some more rain/snow showers along with the drop in temperatures. In our February monthly outlook, we noted that long-range signals were pointing toward a cooler second half of February. This is still looking true as next week is currently looking cooler than this week.
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