This week will be noticeably warmer than last week and especially this past weekend. This will come with more unsettled weather for the region with a mixed bag of precipitation. Here's the details:
MONDAY
Monday will be a quiet day with high pressure building to New England's south. This will allow a southerly flow, boosting temperatures after another very cold morning. Many areas in southern and central New England will rise above freezing for the first time in nearly a week this afternoon, albeit not by too much. Highs will top out in the 30s for most of New England today.
Clouds will increase from northwest to southeast as a cold front approaches in the afternoon and evening. Some snow showers will be possible across northern Vermont and northern Maine as the front approaches.
Weather map for Monday evening:
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
Tuesday will be a dry, but mainly cloudy day ahead of our next system. High pressure to New England's north will feed cooler air into New England while high pressure to New England's south feeds warmer air aloft. This setup generally allows for a messy mix type of event.
In this case, the precipitation will likely start as rain/snow showers for southern areas before switching to mostly snow overnight Tuesday, possibly mixing with sleet. A changeover back to more sleet/freezing drizzle/rain showers for Wednesday afternoon. The northern tier of New England will stick with more wintry precipitation, but it will be lighter across those areas in the afternoon.
As for timing...by Tuesday afternoon, precipitation will break out across Connecticut and western Massachusetts by mid-afternoon. Precipitation will spread generally northeast as the afternoon and evening goes on, covering all but eastern Maine by early Wednesday morning. Continued light and mainly scattered rain/snow showers will continue for the afternoon, mainly in southern and central New England. There will likely be more dry times than wet times Wednesday afternoon.
Expected weather overnight Tuesday to Wednesday morning:
Precipitation will generally be on the light side, with some areas seeing a steadier bout of snow overnight. This will lead to another minor snowfall event, with a widespread dusting to two inches of snow, with some areas potentially pushing toward three inches. The area that will likely see the most is the southern Green Mountains.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY
Persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures rising through the week. By Thursday, highs will likely be into the mid 30s to 40s across most of New England for Thursday and a notch warmer on Friday, with temps possibly approaching 50° in southern New England, 40s elsewhere and northern Maine stuck in the 30s. Conditions will remain unsettled Wednesday night through all day Thursday with scattered showers (rain/snow/mix across New England) and cloudy weather persisting.
By Thursday afternoon, the next system will likely move into New England. This system will be an "inside runner" with a (weak) area of low pressure lifting north of New England through New York. This will put New England in the warm sector, leading to mostly rain showers.
A secondary low may develop in the Gulf of Maine. This could cause the system to trend colder, but it is still looking like a rainy event for most of New England based on temperature profiles. Based on current timing, northern and eastern Maine will be looking at some mixing or snowfall by Friday morning. The timing and trends of the secondary low will be something to watch as this week goes on.
Showers will likely gradually taper off through Friday afternoon, though there remain some discrepancies in timing. At this time, it does look like the bulk of the precipitation will be Thursday night to Friday morning, but exact timing still needs to be worked out.
In any case, southern New England is currently looking at a widespread half an inch of rain, with lesser amounts further north in New England. Snowfall in northern Maine could come out to a couple to a few inches, but this will hinge heavily on timing, which still needs to be worked out.
Potential weather Thursday afternoon (1st image) and Friday morning (2nd image). This is not yet locked in:
WEEKEND
While timing on all of this unsettled weather late this week still needs to be worked out, it does look like Saturday will be drier and remain above average temperature-wise. More northerly flow on Saturday will likely lead to temperatures a notch cooler than on Friday, but still above average. Saturday looks like a decent day as of now, but some leftover showers could be possible depending on timing.
Another system will possibly approach New England late in the weekend or early next week. This could produce a rain or snow event for New England. Many models have the system passing well offshore of New England, but at this range, plenty can change. It does look like the weekend will remain generally above average with signals pointing toward a cool down by Monday (January 29).
Weather map for Monday morning showing a low pressure system passing well offshore of New England. Much can change with both track and timing at this point:
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