This week will feature a return of high humidity levels along with unsettled weather at times as a couple disturbances pass through the region. Wednesday looks to be the most active weather day for New England.
MONDAY
An interesting (albeit weak) little storm system will meander around the Gulf of Maine today. Showers will likely be most numerous Monday morning, but activity will linger through the afternoon. An onshore flow from the system will keep much of New England socked in the clouds for the day.
Some sunshine could break out across western areas in the afternoon. Depending on how much sun can break through, it could support some thunderstorm development in the afternoon for Vermont and western Massachusetts. Highs will be in the 70s for most, with 80s across western Vermont and far northern New England on account of increased sunshine, less showers and a lack of the cool ocean breeze.
HRRR showing potential weather early this afternoon (1st image) and late this afternoon (2nd image). Note the thunderstorms trying to develop in the Connecticut River Valley as some sunshine is possible there, increasing the instability:
TUESDAY
On Tuesday, what's left of the cut off low from Monday (there won't be much) will lift northward. This will allow for another round of scattered showers and storms to develop in the afternoon, mainly across northern New England. Shower/storm coverage looks much more isolated in southern New England, further away from the remnants of the low. Depending on how much instability can build, a couple stronger storms will be possible, but the ingredients aren't really in place for much severe weather.
GFS showing potential weather around mid to late afternoon Tuesday:
A more southerly flow will become stronger as the low pressure system loses its influence. This will allow warmer temperatures (well into the 80s for most) to come right back into the picture. Highs will be cooler farther north in New England, closer to the low pressure system. Humidity will also return in force after a few days away. Once the humidity returns by Tuesday afternoon, it will be stubborn to leave, with dew points remaining elevated through at least the weekend.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
The middle of the week will feature a trough swinging through the northeast from the Great Lakes. The main low will likely traverse northern New England near the Canadian border. This will lift a warm front into New England by Wednesday morning. The system's (weak) cold front will be dragged through the region through the day into Wednesday night. This setup will bring about plenty of clouds and scattered storm chances through most of the day.
While there should be enough instability for scattered thunderstorms to develop through the day, the severe storm threat looks pretty low at this point. Looking at the main ingredients, there will be plenty of moisture and lift, but increased cloud cover will likely prevent instability from reaching its full potential. Shear is also looking relatively weak. This should limit the overall severe weather potential, but, as always, trends will need to be watched.
The greatest threat from Wednesday's activity will be the potential for torrential downpours embedded within the storms. The atmosphere will be moisture-rich and primed for heavy rain. A general half inch to an inch of rain will be possible across western New England as well as the mountains. Should storm training develop, there will be locally higher amounts and the potential for localized flooding issues.
Potential rainfall for Wednesday:
The system will continue to push eastward on Thursday. Thursday has been trending drier for New England outside of Maine. In Maine, particularly eastern Maine, there will be more numerous shower and storm activity Thursday as the system continues to push through the area. The rest of New England will only see isolated activity as the cold front pushes through. We will note that if the trends slow this system down, more activity will be seen farther west in New England during the day.
The cold front is weak and will not provide much of an air mass change at all. Dew points may dip ever so slightly, but temperatures will remain warm. The day will likely end up warmer than Wednesday where more sun will be present (away from eastern Maine). Highs will be in the 80s for most of New England both Wednesday and Thursday with some 90s on Thursday in the valleys.
FRIDAY & WEEKEND
A series of disturbances will likely cross New England through this time frame, keeping the generally unsettled weather around. With that said, all-day washout potential for any of these days is low and there should be many dry times between rounds of showers/storms. At this point, dry hours are looking to be more numerous than wet hours. Exactly when these potential rounds of wet weather will come through is impossible to say at this point.
Weather map for Saturday morning showing disturbances crossing New England:
Heat and humidity will look to continue through the weekend, with 80s to low 90s dominating. Dew points look to remain elevated as well, in the 60s to low 70s.
Comments