This week will feature warm and partly cloudy conditions to start. A cooling trend with more unsettled weather will come into the picture for the end of the week.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
New England will remain under broad cyclonic flow on Monday. This will allow for some clouds to develop in the afternoon, though most areas will not turn entirely overcast. There will also likely be some quick, isolated showers, mainly across northern New England, in the afternoon. Most areas will stay dry today, but a few towns will get a quick shower.
Expected weather early Monday afternoon:
Tuesday will be a near-repeat of Monday, just with less showers around. High pressure begins to build into the region, allowing for another quiet and mild day. The air will be drier, with dew points falling back into the 20s. There will also likely be more sunshine, especially for areas of northern New England that see a mainly cloudy day today.
Highs both days will be in the 60s for many. Tuesday will likely be a notch cooler than Monday. Highs could touch 70° for the typical warm spots of southern New England and the areas of northern New England that see more clouds around will get held to the 50s.
WEDNESDAY
Wednesday has been trending drier for New England. A cutoff low will be located near the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This system will send a frontal boundary toward New England, however, an area of high pressure will slow the front's advance into New England. This will allow much of the area to remain dry during the day. There could still be an increase in clouds, especially for the southern tier of the region. Highs will be similar to Tuesday, though a notch cooler in southern areas where there will be more clouds.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
What was once looking yet another potential soaking for New England in this time frame continues to look less and less wet. The system over the Great Lakes will slowly push northeast as the ridge of high pressure over the northeast begins to weaken. This will allow some showers to develop Thursday afternoon, but it won't be anywhere near a washout. By this point, the front will begin to fall apart, leading to lighter and more scattered shower activity. Some models even show a completely dry day for all of New England.
GFS showing potential weather Thursday afternoon. These showers will be light and scattered around. Don't take that green as an all day rain:
The system's cold front will likely push through New England Friday into Saturday morning. The front appears to wash out over New England, which will lead to another round of lighter rain, likely coming Friday afternoon or evening through Saturday morning. This is currently not looking like a soaking rain.
Weather map for Saturday morning:
Current models are showing less than a quarter inch of rain for New England from the Thursday to Saturday morning time frame. There is some disagreement on rainfall with the GFS and EC-AIFS showing more widespread rainfall and the Euro and CMC showing less. With that said, we'll be watching the trends. An increase in rainfall amounts would be most likely across southern New England.
Current rainfall forecast through Saturday morning:
WEEKEND
New England will remain under a broad trough over the weekend while a broad area of high pressure builds over the center of the country. This will lead to a northwest flow, continuing a cooling trend. Temperatures will likely run slightly below average. A period of unsettled weather is possible, most likely Saturday morning (as mentioned earlier).
BEYOND
A break in large-scale systems may continue through the long-term period, with below average precipitation favored heading toward the end of April.
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