New England Weather This Week: Standard

This week's weather will be nothing to write home about with generally seasonable to mild conditions and a few periods of showers from time to time. The highest shower chances will come Tuesday afternoon and Saturday.

MONDAY

The upper-level low responsible for this weekend's weather is now shifting well northeast of New England as the next system quickly forms over the Great Lakes. Between these two systems is a narrow ridge that will bring New England a very quiet and mild day today. With both ridging aloft and at the surface today, mixing will be plentiful and will boost temperatures into the 50s and 60s for most. Lingering moisture over eastern Maine will keep more clouds around, holding temperatures to the 40s.

TUESDAY

New England's next large-scale system will be approaching after the narrow ridge of high pressure moves offshore later today. The first round of scattered showers will cycle through New England from west to east through the overnight hours. The primary low will continue to move eastward to the north of New England on Monday with a secondary low likely spawning in the vicinity of the Gulf of Maine later in the day on Tuesday, bringing more showers to New England Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Energy will dive into the trough Tuesday afternoon, allowing for a coastal low to develop along the system's triple point (where a warm, cold and occluded front meet). This will allow scattered showers to re-develop across the region in the afternoon. There are discrepancies on just how widespread coverage of showers will be, but at least scattered showers will likely be popping up throughout the afternoon. As the secondary low develops over Maine, it will allow for a more widespread rain over the state Tuesday evening.

Below: HRRR showing potential weather Tuesday afternoon (1st image) and Tuesday evening (2nd image):

In the afternoon, seasonably strong upper-level winds will combine with a cold pool of air aloft, creating steep lapse rates (the rapid decrease in temperature with altitude). With the energy from the low pressure system, this is what will generate the scattered afternoon and evening showers. With enough instability, rumbles of thunder will be possible with the showers. This will be most likely across western New England.

Some hi-resolution models show a broken line of heavier showers and thunder forming ahead of the system's cold front. This potential will be dictated by how much daytime heating can occur along with cloud cover. Should clouds remain stubborn throughout the day, the potential for thunder would be very limited. Should thunder be able to develop, graupel or very small hail will be possible given the cold pool aloft.

Below: Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook for Tuesday:

WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY

The system's cold front will clear New England on Wednesday. This will usher in a cooler air mass, with highs likely topping out in the upper 30s north to low 50s south. Temperatures will likely moderate on Thursday, getting a notch warmer. It will likely become rather breezy with winds gusting in the 20-35mph range both days. The low pressure system will have lifted into the Canadian Maritimes on Wednesday, where it will remain through the rest of the week. This will keep New England under broad cyclonic flow through Thursday.

Below: Euro showing potential temperatures Wednesday afternoon:

This will keep upslope rain and snow showers in the picture for the higher terrain of northern New England through this time. South of the mountains will mainly see puffy clouds develop in the afternoons. These clouds could spit showers every so often, but areas south of the mountains should remain pretty much dry. The mountains themselves will likely see persistent snow showers with decent accumulations possible for ski resorts still operating (Jay Peak, Sugarbush, Killington and Sugarloaf come to mind). These peaks could see several inches of accumulations by Thursday with more by way of rain showers in the valleys.

Below: Hourly weather from about sunrise Wednesday through about midday Thursday:

FRIDAY

Another narrow ridge builds to the south of New England on Friday while the upper low continues to move farther away. A continued warming trend will bring temperatures another notch warmer than the previous day. Skies will also likely be generally sunnier as well, though high clouds ahead of our next system will be entering western New England later in the day.

WEEKEND

New England's next system will likely slide into the region from the Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday. This system will lift a warm front through New England, putting much of the region in the warm sector, leading to an all-rain event region-wide. This system doesn't appear to have a clear connection to the Gulf, so total rainfall will likely remain on the lighter side. At this point, it looks like scattered showers will be around on Saturday, with showers becoming more and more numerous as you move northward.

With New England in the warm sector on Saturday, temperatures will likely be pretty mild. Widespread highs in the 50s north to 60s south will be likely. Southern and central New England could climb well into the 60s. The clouds and showers may limit just how warm it can get, but should the sun manage to break out across southern New England Saturday, some areas could top the 70° mark. The system's cold front will bring temperatures back down for Easter, but drier conditions are poised to return at this point.