The final week of meteorological winter will have a spring-like feel, for most of the week, anyway. A system will move through mid-week, bringing rain, wind and an abrupt drop in temperatures.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
Monday will see quick and isolated flurries or rain showers, mainly across the northern tier of New England in the morning. The day overall has trended drier for most of New England. Skies will see variable clouds across the region. A persistent south-westerly flow will be in place for much of this week, bringing more mild temperatures, beginning Monday. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the 40s to low 50s.
There is some uncertainty in just how mild it can get on Tuesday for eastern New England. While western areas should be able to push well into the 50s, cooler marine air combined with a strong temperature inversion may keep the day cooler (low to mid 40s) further east. This inversion could keep fog and low clouds locked in place longer than expected. Temperatures often warm much slower than expected in this setup. The question will be how quickly clouds are scoured out. Either way, it will be above average.
WEDNESDAY
Overnight Tuesday to Wednesday, a deepening low pressure will pass to New England's north. This system does appear that it will bring rainfall to New England in two waves: overnight Tuesday to Wednesday morning and Wednesday evening through the overnight into Thursday morning.
The first wave of rain comes as more mild air surges north amid increasing southerly winds. This rain will likely be the heaviest and most widespread through about mid-morning. Winds will be strongest with this wave along the coast. An inversion will remain in place, which would make it more difficult to get impactful winds to the surface, especially inland. A pressure gradient will exist, which will create at least gusty winds no matter what.
Potential weather Wednesday morning:
There remains some discrepancy in the exact timing between the two waves of rain, but there will likely be a period of lighter and more scattered rain sometime on Wednesday. Highs will be very mild as New England gets into the system's warm sector.
The system will drag a powerful cold front across New England later Wednesday into Thursday. This front will provide the second wave of widespread rain and wind. Stronger winds could be more widespread and have an easier time reaching the surface with this wave, especially across the interior. Wind advisory-level gusts could occur.
Potential weather Wednesday evening. The shield of steadier rain will spread eastward:
Between the two waves, a widespread half an inch to an inch and a half of rain is possible across New England. Widespread flooding issues are not expected at this time, but some rivers in Vermont may reach flood stage when snowmelt is factored in.
Current NBM rainfall forecast:
This cold front is looking increasingly likely to be quite potent. This will likely result in a rapid temperature drop Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. In fact, some of the rain showers may be able to end as snow showers across New England with the Green Mountains currently having a 50% chance of seeing an inch of snow Wednesday night.
850mb (about 4,700 feet above sea level) temperatures Wednesday evening. You can see a sharp drop approaching New England thanks to that powerful cold front:
THURSDAY
Rapid clearing is expected behind the front on Thursday, leading to a mostly sunny day. It will likely remain blustery and it will be much colder. Of course, in this case, much colder means a return to more winter-like weather. Highs on Thursday will likely top out in the 20s north and 30s south. With the blustery weather will come a colder wind chill, so it will feel quite cold out, especially after the near 60° weather preceding Thursday. Overall, feels-like temperatures from Wednesday afternoon to Thursday afternoon could drop 30-40+°.
FRIDAY & WEEKEND
On Friday, high pressure builds back into New England from the south, allowing a southerly flow to kick in once again. This will allow temperatures to climb bright back up after their brief drop on Thursday. Overall, Friday should be a pleasant and quiet day after some loud weather preceding it.
Heading into the weekend, it appears to once again shoot well above average with 40s and 50s for highs once again as ridging takes back over. How unsettled the weather will be remains to be seen. Right now, it does appear to be mainly dry, but a coastal system may be nearby. That system could swing some rain showers into New England, mainly southern New England and near the coast, depending on how close it can get.
BEYOND
Long range guidance continued to paint a picture of mild weather. March may start out with a trough-in-the-west-ridge-in-the-east pattern, bringing New England milder weather. The Climate Prediction Center has parts of New England in the 90-100% chance of above average temperatures next week. Remember this is a generalization of the week, there could still be brief cold snaps, like the one coming this Thursday.
