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Writer's pictureTim Dennis

New England Weather This Week: Cooling Off

This week will start off rather mild, but that will quickly end as much chillier weather pushes into the region for the rest of the week. It will also be yet another mainly dry week, with some shower chances at the end of the week. With that said, there are no soaking rain events in the picture for New England.


Below: Current Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation outlook:


MONDAY


Showers from a frontal system have largely pushed out of New England, with only northern Maine and the higher terrain expected to see scattered shower activity into the afternoon. With breaks of sun developing this afternoon and a strong westerly flow, it will be a mild day, likely the warmest day of the week by far.


Highs will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s for most. Southernmost New England may be able to push toward 70° while northern Maine and the higher elevations will get held to the mid 40s to low 50s as clouds and showers hang around longer. Gusty winds this morning will gradually diminish through the day.




TUESDAY-THURSDAY


Another, much stronger, cold front will push through New England Tuesday morning. This will usher in a much cooler air mass for Tuesday through Thursday. Highs for most of New England will be in the low 40s to low 50s during this time. Wednesday is looking to be the coldest day as the cold air mass will be overhead. Most will fail to climb out of the 40s, with northern areas getting held to the 30s.



The gradient between the building high pressure to the west and the departing low to the east will lead to a windy day on Tuesday. Wind gusts of 30-40mph with sustained winds of 15-25mph are likely region-wide. Some isolated pockets of power outages are likely to pop up. These windy conditions will also continue to fuel the high fire risk. The very limited rain on Sunday night will dry up quickly and the gusty winds on Tuesday could very well lead to the return of a red flag warning.


Below: Euro showing wind gusts Tuesday afternoon:


Wednesday and Thursday will see lighter winds as the building high pressure to our west moves to the north of the region. This will bring mainly sunny skies and, with the high pressure moving north of New England, continued chilly temperatures. Thursday has trended toward being completely dry as a frontal system gets shoved well to the south of New England due to the high pressure to the north. The only precipitation chance during this time frame will be scattered rain and snow showers across the north on Tuesday.




FRIDAY


On Friday, an expansive and strengthening storm system sitting to New England's east will likely begin to retrograde back northwestward, toward the Canadian Maritimes (this system is seen on the map above) due to the strong area of high pressure moving to the north and east of it. New England will likely be sandwiched between this deepening trough and a ridge to the west.



The result will likely be broad cyclonic flow for New England, increasing the clouds and providing limited shower activity for much of New England. The farther east you are in New England, the higher the chances for precipitation late this week. How far west (and south) showers get in New England will depend on how close the low pressure system can push back toward New England. As of now, the bulk of precipitation is looking to be confined to Maine, but the trends will be watched all week.


Below: Current Weather Prediction Center precipitation forecast for Friday to Saturday morning:


WEEKEND


Any shower activity from the stalled trough may continue into Saturday for northern areas, but a building ridge to the west is currently aiming to gradually push the trough away as the weekend progresses. As of now, it does look like a mainly dry weekend, with Sunday being higher confidence in this.


Below: Current weather map for Saturday morning:


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