It'll be yet another mainly quiet week for New England after Monday. With that said, a trough will hang around for most of the week, providing chilly nights and cool days.
MONDAY
An area of low pressure will move north of New England today. This will drag its cold front across the region. A surface low will likely form along the front while over New England, which will result in a period of widespread rainfall, with some heavier downpours and possibly some rumbles of thunder.
Timing on this system has trended a bit later, with New Hampshire and southern New England seeing the bulk of showers from mid-to late morning into the early afternoon. Maine will see a wet day most of the time once the showers arrive in the later morning to early afternoon. Isolated shower activity will persist for much of New England through the evening for the rest of New England outside of Maine.
HRRR showing potential weather around midday Monday (1st image) and Monday evening (2nd image):
Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75 inches is likely across New England, with the higher end more likely across New Hampshire and Maine. The speed at which the showers will be moving will be the biggest limiting factor in rainfall totals. Showers will persist across eastern Maine through Monday night while the rest dries out.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY
As we've mentioned over the past few days, New England will remain in a trough for much of this week while an expansive ridge builds across the western and central United States. This will keep New England in a cold pool, leading to chilly nights and cool days. Widespread frosts are possible across New England midweek as the temperatures drop into the 30s for many across New England. Afternoon highs will only recover to the 50s to low 60s.
Below: Euro showing the trough/cold pool hanging tight over New England on Wednesday. This will remain in place until late in the week, when it starts to push eastward:
Blocking over Greenland will allow for the upper low responsible for Monday's wet weather to hang around to the northeast of New England through Thursday as it gets cut off from the flow. Some subtle disturbances will likely rotate around this low. This would normally mean widespread unsettled weather for the entire region, but a very dry air mass will make it difficult for showers to develop. For most of New England, this will result in some cloud development, but a mainly dry week after Monday.
Northern areas and the higher terrain will face the best chance at seeing showers during this time. Eastern Maine may see showers linger for much of Tuesday as the upper low remains in the area. The most noticeable disturbance rotating around this upper low will come Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This is when the best chance for showers will be. They'll be most likely across northern New England.
FRIDAY
The cold pool and upper low should begin to shift to the northeast by Friday as high pressure builds in from the southwest. While this would normally result in a drying trend, it won't be all that wet in the days leading up to Friday, so for most, it will be a continuation of the quiet weather for most of this week.
WEEKEND
Friday's ridging will try to hold on for Saturday as a frontal system begins to approach. Saturday is looking like a warmer day than the rest of the week with 60s north and 70s south returning. This will be contingent on the timing of the frontal system. This system currently looks to slide through Saturday night to Sunday morning with a stronger system developing Sunday night into Monday. All of this will be worked out, including timing of potential showers, through this week.
Current weather map for Saturday (October 12):
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