New England's pattern of persistence will hold strong for much of this week with cold temperatures and even colder wind chills. A persistent wind will remain in place through Thursday for most. The week will also be a snowy one in a few select locations around New England.
MONDAY
New England will be caught between two storm systems on Monday. The first is the well-advertised winter storm sliding to New England's south and the second is the cutoff low that has been swirling to the region's northeast since New Year's Day. This will bring a precipitation-free day to pretty much all of New England. We say "pretty much" since a couple flurries could still sneak into southern Connecticut.
There will be very little change in the air mass today, leading to very similar high temperatures as the past few days. The wind will relax somewhat compared to the last few days, but it will still certainly be noticeable, especially as it will knock down those wind chills. Skies will be mostly cloudy across southern New England due to the passing storm system with generally more sun across northern New England.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY
There will be little change in the overall setup through much of this week, which has been expected, as this stubbornly blocked up holds strong. This pattern includes a strong blocking high over Greenland keeping the cutoff low to our northeast hanging around. There is also an expansive area of high pressure to New England's northwest, helping to pump the colder air into the region.
The cutoff low (seen above) will likely retrograde westward, closer to New England around midweek (likely setting up near Newfoundland). This, combined with the departing low pressure to our south, will re-tighten the pressure gradient, bringing back the higher wind gusts. These higher gusts will persist through Thursday. Highs will remain cold, with the teens north and 20s south. Feels-like temperatures will range from the single digits, on either side of zero to the teens. Overnight lows will range from around zero to the mid teens. Morning wind chills will be similar to Monday throughout the week.
After a quick break from the upslope snow activity in the mountains, another long-duration event is set to kick off Monday evening and last through this period. A disturbance will rotate around the cutoff low into northern New England, bringing with it scattered snow showers. These snow showers will likely be most extensive across the northern tier during the day Tuesday. Persistent upslope mountain snow showers will continue through Thursday. A cold front may create another pulse of snow showers Wednesday into Thursday.
Below: CMC showing potential weather from around midnight tonight through around noon Thursday:
When all is said and done, a couple inches of snow will likely have fallen across the mountain valleys and northern Maine. The mountains will make out much better, particularly the northern Greens, which could see 4-8 inches above 1,500-2,000 feet. The summits of the Green Mountains could end up coming away with a foot or more of snow. This snow shower activity is unlikely to push into southern or central New England. The best chance for a stray snow shower or flurry further south would be with the front on Thursday morning.
Below: Probability of seeing at least 2 inches of snow through Thursday morning:
FRIDAY
The cutoff low that meandered toward New England earlier this week will begin to make its final push eastward, away from New England late this week. How quickly this happens is uncertain, but these patterns are stubborn, so we're leaning toward the slower end of guidance. Friday is seeming to act as a transition day as the cutoff low moves away for good and the blocking over Greenland weakens.
Friday is when both the wind and the cold temperatures look to begin to relax. It still looks breezy, but not to the extent of Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will likely rise a notch and may even rise above freezing for southern and central New England. Upslope snow showers will also likely begin to relax.
WEEKEND
There remains large uncertainty in regards to a potential storm this weekend. A northern stream system may approach the region while a southern stream system works up the coast. The level of interaction (or phasing) between these systems will determine impacts in New England. Less phasing would keep the moisture rich southern system to New England's south, resulting in minimal impacts. More phasing would result in a more widespread and impactful storm. In other words, multiple parts need to come together just right and at the right time to produce a snowstorm.
These phasing storms are complex and models can struggle to figure them out within 3-4 days, so there have been significant differences in outcomes depicted by major models from run to run as well as within individual ensemble members. Recent trends have been toward less phasing and a storm system suppressed to the south. With that said, flip-flops will continue to be likely over the next couple days and a northern trend is possible throughout this week.
Another point is that the southern stream system will likely dive into the desert southwest this week. Models can often lose systems in the desert and struggle to figure them out until they emerge. That means uncertainty will remain decently high until around mid-week, when the system pushes out of the desert and toward the Gulf of Mexico.
Below: Current probability of winter weather impacts on Sunday (January 12). You can see the southern trend, but this will continue to wobble around, shift and change through the week:
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