A cold wind will be the main headline for this week. Winds will gradually ease through the week, but cold temperatures will be hanging around. This week is looking quieter than the past few, but we'll be watching one storm later in the week.
MONDAY & TUESDAY
The final phase of this storm will come on Monday as the wind threat has continued to increase. A tight pressure gradient, a moderately strong low-level jet and strong cold air advection will combine to create very high wind gusts throughout Monday. Widespread gusts of at least 45mph will be possible region-wide. Maximum gusts of 50-60mph will be possible across much of Massachusetts, southern New Hampshire and the southern Green Mountains.
It’s still a bit of a question mark as to just how much mixing occurs. Should mixing be more limited (this could occur if clouds are stubborn and it remains overcast this afternoon), the maximum wind gusts below will not be as strong, or the gusts will not be very frequent. Regardless, there is a high power outage threat through Monday for the region. This is especially true for areas that saw icing on Sunday. With little to no melting, the trees will already be strained.
The winds will remain elevated on Tuesday, though not to the extent of Monday. These persistently strong winds combined with a deep west-northwest flow will create very cold wind chills. Feels-like temperatures will likely drop below zero for most in New England, with -20s, possibly low -30s, for the northern tier and mountains. Tuesday will be the coldest day of the week, with highs topping out in the low teens to mid 20s from north to south. Cold weather advisories are in effect for the entire northern tier, including much of Vermont.
Broad cyclonic flow will keep scattered upslope snow showers going for the mountains Monday. These snow showers will gradually diminish through midweek. Outside of the mountains, it will remain mostly dry, though moisture streaming off the Great Lakes could send some snow showers into Massachusetts on Monday.
WEDNESDAY
As this weekend's storm system continues to drift away, well into Canada, the Pressure gradient will begin to relax. This will continue to allow winds to gradually calm. High pressure begins to nose into the region, allowing for a calm day with the air mass beginning to moderate. With that said, it'll still be below average, but still a few degrees warmer than Tuesday. It will feel much better without the high winds. High pressure will also bring an end to the mountain snow showers.
THURSDAY
Confidence is beginning to increase that a potentially powerful nor'easter will pass too far offshore to bring widespread impacts to New England. While there remains a spread in tracks among both operational models and ensemble solutions, the general trend has continued to be toward a track outside the benchmark. The storm may come close enough for a glancing blow. The farther south and east in New England, the better the chance of seeing impacts.
With plenty of cold air in place, and a track offshore, any precipitation generated over New England would be all snow. The exact amount of snow and how far north and east accumulating snow may get will be determined by the storm's final track. A northern stream system will likely dive in from the Great Lakes and begin to phase, but this process appears to be too late to produce a more widespread snowstorm. The northern stream system could bring some lighter snow farther north by itself.
Below: Probability of impactful winter weather Thursday:
Should the northern stream system and the coastal storm interact more, or if this interaction is able to occur earlier, the coastal storm will get tugged north and west, closer to New England. That will be the main thing to watch over the coming days, but signs are pointing to a glancing blow rather than a full-on snowstorm for all of New England.
FRIDAY & WEEKEND
After two stormy weekends, signs are pointing toward a quiet upcoming weekend. Weak upper-level high pressure looks to build into the region, precluding any widespread precipitation. A moisture-starved disturbance may quickly cut through over the weekend, potentially bringing light snow showers, mainly across the north. The key phrase is moisture-starved, so any precipitation eked out would be light.
Depending on exactly where Thursday's storm tracks (and its speed), a period of increased winds could return for Friday before gradually calming down once again as high pressure builds back into the region.
Below: Weather map for Saturday (February 22):
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