This week will be a tale of two halves as a distinct pattern change will commence around midweek, replacing chilly weather with more mild and sunny conditions.
MONDAY
An area of low pressure will skirt across the New England coastline on Monday. The system will likely be in northern Maine by the afternoon. Southern New England should be pretty much dry for the afternoon (a quick spot shower is still possible) as drier air works in behind a cold front while showers continue across northern New England, closer to the center of the low.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around midday today (1st image) and around mid-afternoon (2nd image):
For all of New England, it will be cooler and breezy. There will be a decent temperature gradient across New England with northern areas getting held to the 40s amid more showers and thick clouds and central and southern New England pushing into the 50s. Southernmost New England may be able to spike into the 60s if a warm front can push northward enough.
Below: Temperature departure from average this afternoon, showing chilly weather for much of New England, but a potential spike in southernmost New England:
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY
On Tuesday, the upper-level low that rolled through New England on Sunday and Monday will park itself just north of New England. This will keep New England entrenched in a trough through midweek with broad cyclonic flow dominating. This northwest flow will result in continued scattered showers for the higher terrain of northern New England. With temperatures dropping into the 30s to low 40s for northern areas, some of these showers may fall as light snow or mixing.
Central and southern New England will remain mostly dry during this time (again, a spot shower can't be ruled out amid broad cyclonic flow). The afternoons will likely see cumulus fields develop, leading to variable clouds. The northwest flow will result in chilly afternoon temperatures and breezy conditions to add to that mid-October feel.
Morning lows will be cool, with 30s nearly region-wide likely. Many in central and southern New England will likely see their first frost or freeze this week, with the coolest temperatures expected Wednesday night to Thursday morning. Temperatures will drop to the upper 20s north to mid 30s south for Thursday morning.
Below: CMC showing potential low temperatures Thursday morning:
THURSDAY-FRIDAY
The trough and cold pool over New England to start this week will begin to shift eastward by Thursday. At the same time, an expansive ridge over the center of the country will approach from the west. This will bring drier conditions for northern areas and warmer temperatures for everyone. Thursday will act as a transition day from the cooler weather to the more mild and sunny weather.
WEEKEND
The weather that sets up for late this week will carry over into the weekend with high pressure likely to New England's southwest. This is favorable for more mild and calm conditions. A cold front may approach northernmost New England on Sunday, but, at this early stage, doesn't appear to be anything strong that will have much of an impact on the overall calm, mild weather.
Below: Weather map for Saturday (October 19):
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