This week will feature much calmer and overall drier weather with a distinct warming trend through the week. Unsettled conditions will likely return for the week's end.
MONDAY
Monday will be a typical post-storm day for New England. With the low pressure to the east and high pressure building to the west, very windy conditions will persist through the day. Gusts up to 50mph are possible pretty much region-wide. With a northwest flow, it will be a chilly wind, though the day won’t be arctic. Highs will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s region-wide.
Wrap-around snow showers will persist in the Green, White and Maine mountains through the night and much of the day tomorrow. Some areas could see several inches of additional accumulation through Monday evening. In fact, the winter storm warning for the Green Mountains remains in effect through 8pm Monday.
Areas in the Greens could receive another 6+ inches of snowfall. Snowfall will once again be elevation-based with valleys seeing much less.Snow showers will gradually die off as the day goes on.
TUESDAY
Tuesday will still be a breezy day, but winds will be slackening, especially compared to Monday. This comes as high pressure continues to approach the region from the west. With a transition to high pressure will come more sun. With that sun will come more mild temperatures. Overall, it will be a bright and beautiful day after a raw and damp stretch of weather. Snow showers across northern Vermont and New Hampshire will finally shut off.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
Ridging aloft will bring continued calm weather for this period. The warming trend will continue and likely peak by this time with highs into the 50s and 60s for many areas outside the mountains. Weaker wind will also likely lead to a sea breeze, keeping coastal areas cooler. There is some uncertainty in how mild northern New England will get, especially on Thursday, as it will depend on how far north a warm front can get.
This warm front is coming into New England via a weak area of low pressure that will ride over the top of the ridge during this time. This system will bring more clouds and some isolated showers to northern New England Wednesday afternoon through Thursday.
FRIDAY & WEEKEND
The upper-level flow will likely become more zonal (or flat) for the east heading into this weekend. This will lead to more unsettled weather returning. A series of disturbances will likely trickle through New England, leading to more clouds, shower chances and a bit of a cool down, though it may end up staying slightly above average during this time.
What Euro model is showing Friday afternoon. This is just one model and shouldn't be taken verbatim at this point. Exact timing still needs to be worked out:
With zonal flow, it can be difficult to pin down the exact timing of these disturbances. It may begin to turn more unsettled across the north by Thursday (as mentioned above). All of New England will see an increased chance for showers by Friday.
Based on current thinking, there will be increased showers Friday afternoon through Saturday morning followed by for Saturday afternoon (outside of eastern Maine) with showers returning by Sunday. This timing is low confidence at this point and could change. The general idea is that it will be unsettled during this time, but there will be breaks in the precipitation.
Daily weather maps for Thursday-Monday (March 14-18):
This precipitation is looking like mainly rain for nearly everyone. Northern Maine could see some snow out of this, but there are no strong indications for a high-impact event at this time.
BEYOND
After spending much of the last month or so being dominated by above average temperatures, signals continue to point toward a potential cool down coming to the east for next week (March 18-23). We alluded to a potential cool down for the second half of March in our monthly outlook. This may come as a ridge-in-the-west-trough-in-the-east pattern may set up.
Comments