The temperature ups and downs continue this week with a major warm-up in the middle of the week flanked by cooler weather. It'll also be another mainly dry week, at least for southern and central New England. Some rain and snow showers will move through the northern tier through the first half of the week.
MONDAY
A rather strong area of high pressure will shift offshore of New England on Monday. This will create an onshore flow, which will combine with increased moisture from a trough to the west to produce plenty of clouds for the day despite the high pressure. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy all day, with clouds increasing in the afternoon.
A warm front will begin to approach New England this afternoon and evening. This will likely kick off a round of precipitation across the northern third of New England this evening. Rainfall amounts will be light, with a tenth to quarter inch likely for the northern tier. Some mixing and snow showers are possible across the higher terrain and northern Maine at the onset, but the warm front will bring warmer temperatures and a switch over to rain. Central and southern New England may see a spot shower, but most will remain completely dry.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather Monday evening:
TUESDAY & WEDNESDAY
The actual warm front will cross the region on Tuesday. With a much warmer start to the day and a southwest flow setting up behind the front, temperatures will rise well above average once again. Lingering showers will be possible across the northern tier with clouds and spot showers farther south, but some clearing will likely occur as the day goes on with at least some sun coming out by the afternoon for many. Widespread 60s are likely for southern and central areas with a couple low 70s. Northern and eastern areas will likely be cooler.
New England will be firmly within the warm sector of the frontal system passing to our north on Wednesday, similar to Halloween. With a mild start and good mixing within the warm sector, Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week. It'll likely be a notch cooler than Halloween was, but widespread 70s are likely for southern and central New England with 60s across the northern tier. A couple 80s are possible in the typical warm spots of southern New England. Clouds may somewhat dampen temperatures, which will need to be watched.
The system's cold front will approach northern New England during the day Wednesday. This could trigger some light and spotty showers Wednesday across the northern third of the region, but rainfall amounts should be very light. Winds will also be gusty Tuesday and Wednesday, with gusts of 20-30mph possible. With dry conditions across southern and central New England, very high fire risk will be possible for these days.
THURSDAY & FRIDAY
The cold front will likely cross New England Wednesday evening through Thursday morning. This will help moderate temperatures from the near record highs on Wednesday, but it will still likely be above average for Thursday and Friday. High pressure will generally build back into the region for the end of the week, bringing dry conditions and a lighter wind for Thursday.
On Friday, a quick clipper system will likely pass to New England's north. While dry weather is expected to continue, it may increase the breeze once again for Friday as the gradient between the high pressure and low pressure tightens. Highs will be in the 50s north to 60s south with 40s in northern Maine.
Below: 500mb height anomaly showing a trough to the north of New England suppressing the ridge:
WEEKEND
After the quick Friday system to the north, a ridge rebuilds from the west for the weekend. This will allow a cool Canadian high pressure to build into New England, allowing temperatures to fall closer to seasonable levels with 40s north to 50s south for Saturday. Temperatures may get a notch warmer for Sunday.
Below: Current weather map for Saturday (November 9):
The high pressure builds to the south of New England for Sunday as a frontal system approaches. This system may cross New England later on Sunday into Monday. This is New England's next chance for a widespread rainfall. There is much uncertainty in the track and potential rainfall amounts, but the chance is there for a much needed dose of rainfall. The system will dive into the desert southwest and until it emerges from that region later this week, uncertainty will remain very high in regards to if it will hit or miss with rainfall for us.
Below: Current weather map for Sunday (November 10), showing the approaching system:
BEYOND
The general overall setup is currently favored to remain in place through at least mid-November. This is to say that longer periods of above average temperatures are favored with shorter bouts of chillier weather. This can be seen in the Climate Prediction center's 8-14 day outlook (seen below), which currently covers November 11-17. The center currently gives New England a 60-80% chance of above average temperatures during this time.
Despite the continued above average warmth, there is some hope for some wetter weather to develop by mid-November for the southern half of New England. The window does appear that it may be beginning to open for more rain chances after this week. While there are no clear indications of a drought-busting storm, any increase in shower chances for southern New England will be welcome.
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