This week will be on the active side yet again, with a couple storm systems to watch. This comes as the large-scale pattern that was set up last week remains in place for a majority of this week.
MONDAY
Today will be another quiet day in between the parade of storms. A strong area of high pressure is set up well to New England's west with a trough well to the east. A subtle disturbance will skirt across northernmost New England, bringing scattered snow showers, mainly to northern Maine. Other than that, skies will feature variable clouds with a typical February chill for the rest of New England.
TUESDAY
Most of the day will be on the quiet side once again as the high pressure to the west nudges a bit closer. A cold front will drop through New England beginning Tuesday afternoon. This front will likely spark a line of scattered snow showers across the northern tier in the afternoon and evening. The ingredients are there for a few snow squalls, but whether these ingredients are able to line at the same time remains a question. The line will dry up as it works southward with very little to no activity expected in southern New England.
Below: HRRR showing potential weather around late afternoon Tuesday:
Storm number three of this current stretch (number one being last Thursday and number two being Saturday night) will pass well south of New England late Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning thanks to the cold front suppressing it. This storm may be able to spread its northernmost bands over southernmost New England. Should a few snow showers be able to push into Connecticut and Rhode Island, it won't amount to much, with probabilities of an inch of snow currently capped at 40%.
WEDNESDAY & THURSDAY
Much of Wednesday will be quiet with plenty of clouds around and continued winter chill. Storm number four will begin to approach Wednesday night. This storm will involve an area of low pressure moving to the north of New England with a secondary low developing off New England's coast.
The strength and timing of the secondary low will be key when it comes to precipitation types with this system. This storm appears to be all snow at the start for everyone given the cold air that will be in place. After that initial burst of snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the question becomes what precipitation types will look like heading into the afternoon.
A slower and weaker development of the secondary low will support a stronger push of warmer air moving into the region aloft, supporting a changeover to a mix from south to north, similar to what occurred last Thursday. A quicker and stronger secondary low would support colder profiles, resulting in more widespread snow across the region. Basically, the stronger the secondary low gets, the colder it will be and the weaker it is, the warmer it will be.
Below: Current probability of impactful winter weather Thursday:
As of Monday morning, it looks like a scenario may occur where the primary low is able to spread sufficient warm air aloft into southern New England (and possibly southern New Hampshire) to allow for a changeover to a mix from south to north through the day Thursday. The secondary low will begin to strengthen in the Gulf of Maine, allowing for cold enough air for mainly snow across northern areas. This may also keep cold air locked at the surface in southern New England, supporting sleet and/or freezing rain. The threat for freezing rain in southern New England will need to be watched.
Generally, this storm may play out rather similarly to last Thursday's storm (though this one has the chance to be a bit stronger altogether). Initial estimates show the potential for a moderate snowfall event for areas that stay mostly snow. A very preliminary estimation on snowfall would be a quick burst of 1-3 inches in areas that see a swift transition to a mix while 3-6 inches may be possible where snow is dominant. Again, this is preliminary and will be dependent on the evolution of the secondary low, so we'll continue to watch the trends on that front.
FRIDAY
An expansive area of high pressure looks to set up to New England's west on Friday. This will bring about a quiet day after a messy Thursday. Skies will likely end up mostly sunny with continued seasonable temperatures.
WEEKEND
The weekend will likely start where Friday left off, with quiet conditions under high pressure. However, storm number five will be quickly approaching and likely begin to overspread New England later Saturday into Sunday. A potent system will likely eject out of the west and track near southern New England as it strengthens. Depending on the exact track, this storm will have the chance to produce a decent thump of snow for a portion of New England along with a potential switch to a wintry mix.
There remains a large spread in just how the system will play out, which is expected at this time range given the setup. The overall pattern may become more amplified ahead of this system, which would allow this storm to become stronger than the previous storms in this stretch. This would also allow for a longer duration storm as well, potentially lasting 24+ hours altogether.
Overall, it may play out with a burst of snow at the start for everyone followed by some level of a changeover to mixing from south to north. This is an early trend. This is also how this past weekend's storm was looking at this time range before steadily trending colder through the week. Only time will tell if the same happens this week.
Below: Current probability of impactful winter weather on Sunday (February 16):
BEYOND
No matter how the weekend storm plays out, it should swing the door open for a blast of Arctic air as it departs. Early next week (February 17-19ish) may be very cold. Overall, New England's winter of persistent chill looks to continue through much of the rest of February as there are no signs of any true thaws on the horizon.
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